Ukraine war: has Russia’s Putin changed his strategy in search of a way out of conflict?

Strained Russian forces, who have shown little interest in moving on Kyiv in the past few days, were directed to focus on liberating the disputed Donbas region

Analysts say Putin might be recalibrating to make the Donbas the new starting point for an offensive he could later broaden

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Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 1:45pm, 26 Mar 2022

Russian forces in Ukraine seem to have shifted their focus from a ground offensive aimed at Kyiv, the capital, to instead prioritising what Moscow calls liberation of the contested Donbas region in the country’s industrial east, officials said on Friday, suggesting a new phase of the war.

It appears too early to know where this will lead. Has President Vladimir Putin scaled back his ambitions in search of a way out of the war? The dug-in defensive positions taken recently by some Russian forces near Kyiv indicate a recognition of the surprisingly stout Ukrainian resistance.

On the other hand, Russian forces might be aiming to continue the war with a narrower focus, not necessarily as an endgame but as a way of regrouping from early failures and using the Donbas as a new starting point, one US analyst said.

Putin’s forces are under great strain in many parts of the country, and the United States and other countries are accelerating their transfer of arms and supplies to Ukraine. In recent days, US officials have said they see evidence of Ukrainian defenders going on the offensive in a limited way in some areas. Earlier this week they managed to attack a large Russian ship in port on the Black Sea coast.

Putting a positive face on it all, the deputy chief of the Russian general staff said his forces had largely achieved the “main objectives” of the first phase of what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said Russian forces had “considerably reduced” the combat power of the Ukrainian military, and as a result Russian troops could “focus on the main efforts to achieve the main goal, liberation of Donbas.”