Explainer | Ukraine war: Blood, treasure and chaos: the cost of Russia’s invasion
- Kyiv said 9,000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed in the war, while US intelligence estimates some 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed
- A third of Ukrainians – which has a population of 41 million – have been forced from their homes – the world’s largest current human displacement crisis
Following are the main impacts of the war as it enters its seventh month:
Deaths
Since Feb. 24, 5,587 civilians have been recorded as killed and 7,890 as injured, though the actual casualties are much higher, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said on August 22.
Most of those killed or injured were the victims of explosive weapons such as artillery, missile and air strikes, the OHCHR said.
Separately, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said on August 22 that nearly 9,000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed in the war, the first death toll provided by the military top brass since the invasion. He provided no details.
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Ukraine-backed forces possibly behind strikes in Russian-annexed territory
US intelligence estimates that some 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far in Ukraine and three times that number wounded – equal to the total Soviet death toll during Moscow’s occupation of Afghanistan in 1979-1989.
About 14,000 people were killed there between 2014 and the end of 2021, according to OHCHR, including 3,106 civilians.
Misery
Land
Besides the human losses, Ukraine has lost control of around 22 per cent of its land to Russia since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, according to Reuters calculations.
The true dollar cost to Ukraine is unclear. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in July that the total rebuild after the war would cost around US$750 billion. It may be much more.
It is unclear how much Ukraine has spent on fighting.
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Russia’s costs
The war has been expensive for Russia too – though it does not disclose the costs, which are state secrets.
Besides the military costs, the West has tried to punish Moscow by imposing severe sanctions – the biggest shock to Russia’s economy since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia’s central bank now forecasts that the US$1.8 trillion economy will contract by 4 per cent to 6 per cent in 2022, less than the 8 per cent to 10 per cent contraction it forecast in April.
Still the impact on Russia’s economy is severe – and not yet fully clear. It has been excluded from Western financial markets, most of its oligarchs are sanctioned, and it is experiencing problems sourcing some items such as microchips.
Russia last month defaulted on its foreign bonds for the first time since the calamitous months following the 1917 Bolshevik revolution.
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Price increases
The invasion and Western sanctions on Russia led to steep rises in the prices of fertiliser, wheat, metals and energy, feeding into both a brewing food crisis and an inflationary wave that is crashing through the global economy.
Attempts to reduce reliance on Russian oil, gas and oil products – or even to cap their prices – have exacerbated what is already the most severe energy crunch since the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s.
After Russia cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany, prices for wholesale gas soared in Europe.
Economic growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts the world’s economy will grow 3.2 per cent this year, down from 6.1 per cent last year, and significantly lower than its April forecast of 3.6 per cent, its January forecast of 4.4 per cent and its October forecast of 4.9 per cent.
Western weapons
The United States has provided about US$9.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since February 24 including stinger anti-aircraft systems, Javelin anti-armour systems, 155mm Howitzers and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear protective equipment.
