As war setbacks mount, Russia’s Putin faces a stark choice: escalate fight or seek talks with Ukraine

Experts say three scenarios in coming months that could create conditions for negotiations: further Ukraine advances, a revived Russian assault, or a stalemate

But a barrage of Russian missiles targeting civilian infrastructure across Ukraine on Tuesday shows the price will be high if Putin deems talks out of the question for now

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Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Sputnik/Reuters

Published: 12:44pm, 17 Nov 2022

Humiliated by Russia’s battlefield routs, Vladimir Putin faces risky choices: dig in for a long fight, escalate – and risk seeing the conflict spiral out of control – or seek a face-saving path to talks that Ukraine has so far dismissed.

The decision will depend largely on how the war progresses as winter settles in, with analysts warning of a slow grind that could see further collateral damage like the Ukrainian missile that appears to have accidentally struck Poland on Tuesday.

For Kyiv, the recent Russian retreat from Kherson was its third victory since the invasion was launched in February, after Russia’s failure to take the capital and the recovery of Kharkiv in a surprise counteroffensive last September.

Their will to fight bolstered, Ukrainians are now eyeing other Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the peninsula Russia seized in 2014 and which President Volodymyr Zelensky has said must be recovered for the war to end.

But a barrage of Russian missiles targeting civilian infrastructure across Ukraine on Tuesday shows the price will be high if Putin deems talks out of the question for now.

“Historically, Russian authorities never negotiate from a position of weakness,” said Cyrille Bret, a researcher at the Paris-based Jacques Delors Institute, a think tank.