Belarus strongman Lukashenko sows future peril with Wagner PR success
- Leader Alexander Lukashenko scored propaganda victory by brokering deal which staved off internal armed conflict in Russia but may live to regret it, experts say
- Some think mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin may have been ‘dumped’ on Belarus by Russia, while presence of Wagner boss could bring ‘multiple risks’
Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko scored a propaganda victory by brokering the deal which staved off the threat of an internal armed conflict in Russia but may live to regret an accord that will see his country host the Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, observers say.
In a surprise statement late Saturday, Lukashenko’s press service said he had spent all day in negotiations with Prigozhin, with the approval of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Wagner boss had agreed to stop his advance towards Moscow.
The announcement was a boost for Lukashenko, who has ruled a nation that borders three EU states for almost 30 years but has been treated as a pariah by the West since disputed 2020 elections and now also because of his support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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It also comes during a tricky period after the leader, 68, faced major questions about his health when he looked poorly during the annual World War II victory ceremony in Moscow last month and then vanished from view for several days.
Under the deal brokered by Lukashenko, Prigozhin will in future live in exile in Belarus, the Kremlin announced. It still remains unclear if he will be bringing members of the Wagner militia with him.
The late night phone call where, according to the Belarusian presidency, Putin thanked Lukashenko for his work must have been music to the Belarusian leader’s ears.
But Katia Glod, Russia-West Policy Fellow at the European Leadership Network in London, said it was likely that Prigozhin was “dumped” on Lukashenko by Putin.