Ukraine pivoting to defence after Russia holds off counteroffensive, analysts say
- Putin is hopeful that Western allies will grow weary of financing Kyiv’s costly war effort, allowing Moscow’s forces to make a new offensive push
- The US Congress has broken for the holidays without a deal to send around US$61 billion to Ukraine
Ukraine’s armed forces are taking up a more defensive posture, a military analysis said on Wednesday, after their summer counteroffensive failed to achieve a breakthrough against Russia’s army and as winter weather sets in after almost 22 months of the war.
“In recent weeks, Ukraine has mobilised a concerted effort to improve field fortifications as its forces pivot to a more defensive posture along much of the front line,” the UK ministry of defence said in an assessment.
The Kremlin’s deep defences held firm against Ukraine’s months-long assault, which employed Western-supplied weapons but did not have essential air cover along the front line that extends for around 1,000km (600 miles).
Most fighting in recent weeks has focused on artillery, missile and drone strikes as mud and snow hinder troop movements.
“Russia continues local offensive options in several sectors, but individual attacks are rarely above platoon size,” the UK analysis said. “A major Russian breakthrough is unlikely and overall, the front is characterised by stasis.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hopeful that Kyiv’s Western allies will grow weary of financing the costly Ukrainian war effort, allowing the Kremlin’s forces to make a new offensive push next year against a weaker foe.
He has put the Russian economy on a war footing to prepare for that.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that he is certain the United States will make good on its promise to provide billions of dollars in further aid for Kyiv to continue its fight. The US Congress has broken for the holidays without a deal to send around US$61 billion to Ukraine.
What if Putin wins? US allies fear defeat as Ukraine war aid stalls
Zelensky also noted that next year Ukraine plans to produce 1 million drones, which have become a key battlefield weapon. The relatively cheap drones can be used to destroy expensive military hardware.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, said the million new drones will be so-called first-person view, or FPV, drones, which have a real time video function.
In addition, he said in a Telegram post, Ukraine can manufacture next year more than 10,000 mid-range strike drones that can travel hundreds of kilometres as well as more than 1,000 drones with a range of more than 1,000km (600 miles).
They will allow Ukraine to hit targets well behind the front line and in Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defences intercepted 18 of 19 Russian Shahed-type drones overnight, the Ukraine air force claimed on Wednesday.
Moscow also fired two S-300 ballistic missiles at Kharkiv in the northeast of Ukraine, the air force said. No casualties were reported.
In Russia, air defences shot down a drone in the country’s western Belgorod region, the Russian defence ministry said. It also reported no casualties.
