Allies worry Ukraine won’t be able to retain Kursk land if Russia intensifies attacks

Ukraine’s daring offensive into Russia’s Kursk region impressed Kyiv’s allies with its quick initial success, upending perceptions the war had settled into a stalemate and exposing the hollowness of Vladimir Putin’s vows to defend his territory at all costs.

But a month into the operation, US and European officials still question what Kyiv’s endgame is for the 1,300 sq km (500 square miles) of Russian territory it says its forces now occupy. Some allied officials fear Kyiv could be forced to give up that land within a few months if Moscow mounts a larger counter-attack.

With Russian forces pressing an offensive of their own in Ukraine’s east, using superior numbers to crack Kyiv’s lines, some European officials expressed concern that the cost of the Kursk operation may prove high. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

Ukraine kept its allies in the dark about its plans for the operation, the largest incursion suffered by Moscow since World War II. The lightning campaign has revealed the weakness of Russian defences, challenging the view that Putin’s two-year-old invasion had become a grinding war of attrition played to the Kremlin’s advantages.

The lack of a major Russian retaliation has also bolstered Kyiv’s argument that Putin’s oft-touted “red lines” are empty threats aimed at scaring the US and Europe. President Volodymyr Zelensky is citing the muted Kremlin response as he pushes allies to allow Ukraine to use longer-range weapons on targets inside Russia and take the pressure off his outnumbered forces. Privately, some allied diplomats now agree the fears about Putin’s retaliation appear overblown.

“Putin has shed so much blood that his ‘red lines’ are meaningless now,” Zelensky told allied officials at a meeting in Germany on Friday. He repeated appeals to be allowed to use Western long-range weapons to hit targets inside Russia “so that Russia is motivated to seek peace”.