New | Is unpredictable Duterte a liability to his own economy?
The firebrand Philippines leader is developing a reputation for being ‘unsteady’ - and that could spook investors in the long term
While Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proved this week that he can apologise almost as fast as he can offend, his unpredictability risks unsettling global leaders and investors alike.
Duterte’s latest diplomatic dust-up, this time offensive comments aimed at US President Barack Obama, led to Washington calling off talks between the two leaders at a regional summit in Laos. On its face a rift between the longtime allies would appear to provide an opening for China, but in reality it just made the Philippine leader look unsteady: And that’s not good for anyone.
“It could hardly be perceived as an opportunity because Duterte often talks incoherently and is temperamentally unstable,“ said Li Jinming, professor of international relations at the Research School of Southeast Asian Studies at Xiamen University in China’s Fujian province. “He could say one thing today and utter the entire opposite tomorrow.”
That tough-talking style has boosted Duterte’s popularity at home as he aggressively takes on drug dealers, criminals and insurgents in a nation where security is often perilous. Yet for governments and companies that prize stability, the rhetoric may prompt them to pull aid or investment at a time when the Philippines is shedding its reputation as the “Sick Man of Asia.“
For now, the risk is mainly over the long term, according to Joey Cuyegkeng, a senior economist at ING Groep NV in Manila. Growth prospects are favourable, inflation is low and manufacturing activity is increasing.
