Barack Obama’s ‘Asian pivot’ appears less sure-footed than ever as Thai king’s passing adds to regional uncertainty
Obama’s efforts to boost security ties with Southeast Asia followed China’s pursuit of territorial claims in the South China Sea
The death of Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Thursday adds a new layer of uncertainty to US President Barack Obama’s faltering “pivot” to Asia less than a month before the November 8 US presidential elections.
The king was important in cementing the long-standing alliance between the United States and Thailand after the second world war, in a reign that spanned the Vietnam war and development of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which Washington still considers vital to maintaining its influence in the region.
King Bhumibol’s death coincides with faltering momentum in Obama’s signature policy of rebalancing the US diplomatic and security focus to the Asia-Pacific region in the face of China’s rapid rise.
The king’s death adds to uncertainty in Southeast Asia, a region in considerable flux already
The main economic pillar of the rebalance, the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, is languishing in the US Congress with no guarantee that Obama will be able to push it through before leaving the presidency to Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, both of whom say they oppose the deal.
Clinton, as secretary of state under fellow Democrat Obama from 2009-13, was one of the architects of the policy but Republican Trump has questioned the extent to which he would maintain the US security commitment to East Asia.
Obama’s efforts to boost security ties with Southeast Asia have come in response to China’s pursuit of territorial claims in the South China Sea, a vital strategic waterway. However, a torrent of anti-American rhetoric from new Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has cast doubt on the US military relationship with Manila just months after Washington reached an agreement on rotating access to bases in the country.
Other Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, are focused on internal political issues and are avoiding playing any leadership role in Asean, while even traditionally reliable regional ally Australia is treading carefully to avoid jeopardising its economic ties with Beijing.