Analysis Trump looms over Abe’s Pearl Harbour visit and the future of Japan-US ties

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s historic visit to Pearl Harbour with US President Barack Obama on Tuesday punctuated the Obama administration’s multi-year effort to prod Japan and its neighbours in Asia to decrease tensions by moving beyond lingering wartime grievances. But as the two leaders paid homage to the 2,403 Americans who died in the surprise Japanese attack on December 7, 1941, the geopolitical backdrop for the event was clouded by President-elect Donald Trump’s pugnacious and unpredictable foreign-policy pronouncements. Watch: Abe offers 'everlasting condolences' to Pearl Harbor victims During the campaign, Trump raised alarm in both countries when he questioned the value of the US military’s basing agreements in Japan and suggested the island nation consider developing its own nuclear weapons. Shinzo Abe offers ‘everlasting condolences’, but no apology, on visit to Pearl Harbour with Obama Raising such doubts about a security framework that has defined Asia since the second world war poses a risk for Japan, which relies on US military power to deter threats from North Korea’s nuclear programme and China’s assertiveness over disputed territory. That means Abe is being forced to focus on diplomatic and security challenges that are likely to keep economic reforms well down his list of priorities. And so Abe draws the curtain on 2017, taking delicate steps towards reconciliation with Asia. There were no surprises in Hawaii. Abe, making the first visit to the Pearl Harbour memorial by a Japanese prime minister, had not been expected to apologise for the 1941 attack, and he didn’t. I suspect they’re holding their breath a little bit Sheila Smith, Council on Foreign Relations Instead, he offered his “sincere and everlasting condolences” for those who died, while praising the power of the reconciliation. In a speech following talks with Obama at the harbour, Abe gave his condolences in his capacity as prime minister “to the souls of those who lost their lives here, as well as to the spirits of all the brave men and women whose lives were taken by a war that commenced in this very place.” After both leaders made their speeches at Kilo Pier, located in the base that came under Japanese attack in 1941, Abe spoke with and embraced a number of Pearl Harbour survivors present. The joint ceremony that followed the leaders’ summit, their last before Obama leaves office next month, took place at the USS Arizona Memorial, built above the US battleship sunk in the surprise attack that prompted the United States’ entry into the war. The visit was a symbolic bookend to Obama’s visit in May to Hiroshima, where the United States deployed the world’s first atomic bomb. The Pearl Harbour visit seemed unlikely as recently as three years ago when Abe, leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, visited Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, the paean to Japan’s wartime dead, in a move that inflamed regional tensions and irritated the White House. The Obama administration has sought to improve relations in Asia, especially between US allies Japan and South Korea, to hedge against China’s rise and address shared challenges, such as a nuclear-armed North Korea. Since then, Tokyo has negotiated, with support from the White House, a resolution with Seoul over the forced use of women as sex slaves by Japan’s imperial army. And Abe expressed remorse for the war during remarks to a joint meeting of the US Congress last year ahead of the 70th anniversary of the end of the second world war. The focus of Tuesday’s events, by their nature, was on the past. But it is the future of the US-Japan relationship under Trump that will have occupied both Abe and Obama’s thoughts. Like leaders around the world, Abe is left waiting and wondering as Trump, who has already roiled US-China relations over Taiwan, previews his foreign policy on Twitter. Abe described Trump as “a leader we can trust” after a 90-minute meeting in November. But Japan will need clarity after Trump’s suggestion that the country may have to develop its own nuclear weapons, said Tobias Harris, vice-president at Teneo Intelligence in Washington. A second priority will be determining if the Trump administration will stick to the Obama White House’s position on the dispute between Tokyo and Beijing over islands in the East China Sea. The East China Sea, I think, could be messier than it’s been in a few years, particularly in light of the broader shifts in US China policy Tobias Harris, vice-president at Teneo Intelligence “The East China Sea, I think, could be messier than it’s been in a few years, particularly in light of the broader shifts in US China policy,” Harris said. Even before taking office, Trump has thrown a wrench in Abe’s plans. Trump promised to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, a deal that Abe has championed at home. Abe’s party pushed TPP legislation through parliament earlier this month in an attempt to convince the US Congress to do the same. “The trade relationship between Japan and the US could get significantly worse,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Securities in Tokyo. He said the relationship could depend on whether or not Abe follows the new US administration’s diplomatic postures toward Russia and China. After a year in which populist rage erupted around the world, Japanese policy makers are cautious. At home, Abe’s main goal for 2017 will be maintaining stability, said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a special adviser and speech writer for the prime minister. “Japan is entering tumultuous waters internationally,” he said, citing the economic slowdown in China and political turmoil in Europe as other potential risks. But in that respect, the enforced focus on diplomacy could be welcomed by Abe as an excuse not to have to embark on politically risky economic reforms at home. The spring will see debate over the possible abdication of the emperor, electoral district reform and the implementation of an unpopular bill that will legalise casino development. All of these will eat into parliament’s time and leave Abe with less political capital for structural reforms. Jun Okumura, a former trade ministry official and now a visiting scholar at Meiji Institute of Global Affairs, doesn’t expect any bold moves on economic policy next year. “Japan is in a comfortable place,” Okumura said. “It’s in the Indian summer of postwar history. Abe doesn’t have to hit a home run.” With negligible immigration, Japan stands out as a democracy where policy makers are not fighting angry populism. That leaves Abe, long seen as a nationalist and traditionalist, among a dwindling number of voices for the existing liberal international order. Japan is in a comfortable place. It’s in the Indian summer of postwar history. Abe doesn’t have to hit a home run Jun Okumura, Meiji Institute of Global Affairs “Japan is running as a front-runner in the arena of globalisation and internationalisation,” said Taniguchi, the adviser. “Abe feels responsible in standing tall and staying firm in advocating the value of a liberal international trading regime and rules-based order.” It’s an unfamiliar position for a country that has typically followed the US lead on foreign policy, and an unexpected shift for Abe, who during his first stint as Japan’s prime minister governed more in the narrow style of a leader of an ideological faction. Yet it’s consistent with Abe’s actions more recently, Harris said. “To a certain extent I think Abe’s tried to do that for the last several years. He’s certainly tried to be that voice in Asia itself,” he said. The big question is what becomes of the US-Japan alliance under Trump. Tokyo is “relatively reassured that [Trump’s] campaign rhetoric of extreme isolationism is gone, but the unpredictability factor is still the biggest challenge,” said Sheila Smith, a Japan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “What Abe will want to do with Trump is to hug him close, and teach him about Japan and Asia. “I suspect they’re holding their breath a little bit,” Smith added. “But I do think in Mr Abe’s personal visit and his subsequent follow-up, he’s trying to be the ally of choice for Mr Trump.” Additional reporting by Associated Press and Bloomberg

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The visit was a symbolic bookend to Obama’s visit in May to Hiroshima, where the United States deployed the world’s first atomic bomb

The visit was a symbolic bookend to Obama’s visit in May to Hiroshima, where the United States deployed the world’s first atomic bomb