PoliticoDonald Trump’s trade wars start biting Republican Party ahead of midterms
With fresh tariffs on Chinese goods taking effect, company reports and prominent sentiment gauges are flashing early warnings for the US economy
This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Ben White on politico.com on September 24, 2018.
US President Donald Trump’s trade battles are already triggering economic warnings – and rising danger for Republicans just ahead of the midterm elections.
As fresh US tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports took effect Monday, surveys show consumers growing increasingly worried about higher prices this fall.
Giant retailers such as Walmart are warning of price increases for manufactured goods. And smaller businesses in swing states and districts from Washington state to Iowa to Tennessee are complaining bitterly about big hits to their exports.
The economic fallout from Trump’s skirmishes with China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union risk making an already tough cycle for Republicans even more brutal, giving Democrats a chance to peel away voters linked to influential industries – like Washington state cherry farmers and Tennessee bourbon makers – who have long supported business-friendly Republicans.
“Where you have real-world effects of the trade war, you see people’s opinions sour dramatically,” said Scott Lincicome, a trade lawyer and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute who is studying the links between public opinion and trade.
“You look at places like Washington state where people are dependent on exporting cherries and apples, or rust belt states that border Canada, or Tennessee with auto and bourbon makers, and you are going to see close races where this is actually a decisive issue.”