PoliticoTrump gets to celebrate a major economic milestone soon, but threats lurk nearby

This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Ben White on politico.com on February 19, 2019.

President Donald Trump this summer may be able to fire up his Twitter account and claim credit for overseeing the longest economic expansion in American history.

He just needs to avoid escalating his trade war with China, stoking a fight over the nation’s debt limit or sparking some other economic crisis that casts a pall over his celebration.

Signs are already piling up that the economy wobbled badly in December during the last government shutdown fight. And economists warn it could slow considerably this year, especially if consumers, investors and businesses continue to worry that the economic expansion – heading toward its 10th birthday – is coming to an end, perhaps with a shove from an unpredictable president.

“We no longer have the luxury of saying that the economy is just fine, so we can wait and see how all of these Trump policies work out,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, who noted he is being peppered with calls from clients every day worried that the US economy is heading for a major slide.

“The challenge is the economy is now very much at risk of no longer being fine,” Slok said. “There is simply less room to manoeuvre right now when it comes to fiscal policy or trade policy and the risks are higher.”