Canada election 2019: PM Justin Trudeau faces tight race as campaign begins
- Polls suggest the opposition Conservative party with its untested leader, Andrew Scheer, is close to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, admired abroad for his progressive policies but damaged by scandals at home, was kicking off a six-week re-election campaign on Wednesday with opinion polls suggesting his hold on power would be weakened.
Trudeau, who swept to office in November 2015 promising “sunny ways” and stressing the importance of gender equality, gay rights and the environment, faces an electorate more focused on the economy and affordability when it votes on October 21.
Trudeau was expected to visit the Ottawa residence of Governor General Julie Payette, the acting head of state, to formally launch the race.
The election campaign can then officially begin, although political leaders and parties have already been wooing voters with pre-election ads, announcements and whistle stops in key battlegrounds across the country.
Elected in 2015, Trudeau and the Liberal Party will be battling to hold onto a majority in parliament against untested rivals Andrew Scheer of the Conservatives and New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, as well as the strengthening Greens led by Elizabeth May.
Accusations of Trudeau meddling in a criminal prosecution sent the Liberals’ popularity tumbling at the start of the year.
Climate change and affordability are widely predicted to be the main issues in the campaign.
The Canadian economy is strong, posting second-quarter growth of 3.7 per cent and almost half a million new jobs created in the last year.
But the economic gains have not been widely felt, and Canadians have increasingly expressed concern about a rising cost of living.
The Bank of Canada also warned last week that the economy, facing international headwinds, will slow in the second half of the year, with economists worried about a prolonged trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, the US and China.
Throughout his first term, the 47-year-old married father off three cast himself as a champion in the fight against global warming, while Scheer has vowed to roll back a federal carbon levy as his first act in office, if elected.
Scandal tarnishes Canada PM Justin Trudeau’s image as poll shows he could lose power in October election
The Liberals over the past four years legalised cannabis, boosted Canada’s resettlement of refugees, negotiated a new continental free trade deal with the US and Mexico, and concluded trade pacts with the EU and Pacific nations.
The Trudeau government also oversaw the largest military procurement in Canadian history, to replace ageing warships and fighter jets.
But Trudeau’s political agenda was often sidelined by crises, including diplomatic and trade rows with the US, India, Saudi Arabia and China.
China has detained two Canadian nationals in apparent retaliation for Canada’s arrest of a Chinese tech executive on a US warrant.
As host of the 2018 G7 summit, Trudeau found himself the target of accusations of weakness and dishonesty by US President Donald Trump after the US suddenly pulled out of the joint final statement.
Nationalising an oil pipeline to salvage the construction project after years of delays due to protests and legal challenges also drew the ire of environmental activists that year.
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But Trudeau’s golden boy image suffered the worst hit after he expelled from the Liberal Party two senior ministers – both women, one of them Canada’s first indigenous attorney general – for criticising his alleged meddling in the prosecution of engineering giant SNC-Lavalin to try to save jobs.
The move undercut his feminist appeal and soured reconciliation with indigenous peoples.
In recent months, the Liberals managed to claw back some of that lost support.
A Nanos Research poll released on Tuesday showed the Liberals at 34.6 per cent and the main opposition Conservatives, led by Scheer, at 30.7 per cent. That margin would not be enough to guarantee a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
Senior Liberals say they are quietly confident of victory and predict Trudeau will campaign much more effectively than Scheer, 40, who is fighting his first election as Conservative leader.
But Canadian campaigns can produce major surprises. The Liberals trailed in third place when the 2015 election was called but steadily improved to pull off an outright victory.
“This is not a ‘Throw the bums out’ election. This is a ‘Punish the bums’ election,” said Nik Nanos, head of Nanos Research.
Major planks of the Liberal platform will include measures to address mobile phone and internet bills and a limited expansion to the universal health care system to cover part of the cost of prescription drugs, say party insiders.
Scheer promises to halt what he calls unsustainable government spending, saying in a video last week: “We have a plan for a government that lives within its means so we can put more money in your pocket.”
Reuters and Agence France-Presse
