Coronavirus study: Why Canada could still be social distancing in 2022, even after it flattens the curve

New modelling suggests repeated application of distancing measures will be needed to prevent health systems from being overwhelmed

Such measures could restrict infections to 2 per cent of the population – but could need to be enforced for 13 months out of two years, Ontario study suggests

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A resident waves from her window at Residence Herron, a long-term care facility in Montreal, where more than 30 residents have died of Covid-19. Photo: Reuters

Published: 5:55am, 17 Apr 2020Updated: 8:54pm, 25 Nov 2020

University of Toronto epidemiologist Dr Ashleigh Tuite says “everything” about Covid-19 worries her.

But one of her biggest fears is how Canadians are going to cope when they realise that physical distancing and other coronavirus infection controls will likely be part of their lives for much, much longer than they might expect.

How long? Such measures, repeatedly switched on and off, could be part of Canadian life until 2022 or until a vaccine is in wide use, under modelling published by Tuite and colleagues in the Canadian Medical Association Journal last week.

A strategy highlighted by the peer-reviewed research would entail on-off distancing measures being enforced for a combined 13 months out of two years.

The general prospect of waves of infection and repeated enforcement of physical distancing applied not just to Canada, Tuite said.

People line up to buy groceries in the near-empty Metrotown mall in Burnaby, British Columbia, on Tuesday. Photo: Xinhua

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