Coronavirus: researchers nearly double US death projection due to easing of lockdowns
- University of Washington model used by White House predicts 135,000 Americans will die through beginning of August
- Internal government data also projects surge in fatalities and infections through May, US media reports say
Nearly 135,000 Americans were forecast to die from Covid-19 through the beginning of August, almost double the last prediction, due to loosening of lockdowns, according to an updated forecast from the University of Washington on Monday.
The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said the sharp increase from its last estimate in mid-April reflected rising mobility and the easing of social distancing measures in 31 states by May 11.
Used by the White House, the institute’s models tie the increased deaths to increasing contacts among people that promote transmission of the novel coronavirus, which causes the Covid-19 respiratory disease.
The revised forecast came after internal US government data projected daily coronavirus case numbers and deaths surging higher through this month, The New York Times and The Washington Post reported on Monday, even as President Donald Trump urged states to ease restrictions aimed at quelling the pandemic.
The Trump administration’s confidential forecast, based on government modelling, projects that the coronavirus will kill 3,000 Americans a day by the end of May, the Times said, up from a current daily toll of around 2,000.
The projections, pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now, the Times said.