Pentagon chief Mark Esper risks being sidelined as White House floats replacements
- The defence secretary’s job is likely safe, but the White House is still looking at options
- Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy could be next in line if Esper does flame out
This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Lara Seligman, Daniel Lippman and Meridith McGraw on politico.com on June 4, 2020
Esper’s future is in question after he opposed Trump on Wednesday over the president’s call to deploy active-duty troops to quash protests taking part throughout the US. In the 24 hours since Esper spoke out, he has met with the president at the White House and has received tepid-at-best endorsements from Trump’s team.
But instead of being shown an early exit, one person in the administration said, Esper could just face an icing out. It’s a fate that has befallen numerous aides and Cabinet secretaries who cross Trump, from former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, to national security advisers H.R. McMaster and John Bolton, to every former chief of staff. Weeks or months before each aide actually departed the administration, Trump simply cut them out of key decisions after growing frustrated with them.
Sidelining advisers who disagree with him is Trump’s “M.O.” said Guy Snodgrass, who was chief speech-writer for former Defence Secretary James Mattis. “It sometimes happens just because President Trump wants that individual to feel that that’s an untenable position and they should depart on their own as opposed to him firing them.”
The White House has notably not jumped to Esper’s defence in the past day. When asked on Thursday whether Trump had lost confidence in the Defence Secretary, White House deputy press secretary Hogan Gidley was non-committal.
“As you know, when the president loses confidence – if he loses confidence – you’ll know that,” Gidley said.
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It was the second time in as many days that a White House spokesperson declined to go to bat for Esper. When asked by reporters on Wednesday if Trump still had confidence in his Pentagon chief, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said, “As of right now, Secretary Esper is still Secretary Esper. And should the president lose faith, we will all learn about that in the future.”
The White House offered no further comment.
Esper may not be on his way out the door just yet, but the reasons are largely logistical. The election is only five months away, so it’s unlikely the administration wants to try to push a new Cabinet nominee through the Senate. Meanwhile, the optics of firing the Defence Secretary amid the dual crises of a public health emergency and nationwide civil unrest are not ideal.
However, an administration official and two people close to the White House say staffers in recent days have pulled together a list of possible candidates for Defence Secretary if Trump does choose to fire Esper. At the top of that list is Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, who was Esper’s No. 2 before taking the Army job last summer, the people said. Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), an outspoken Trump ally who has previously been considered for the position, is also in the mix, according to one of the people.
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“He’s doing a good job,” said Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S. C.), who spoke to the president recently and doesn’t think Esper’s job is on the line. “There’s no reason to let him go. That’s all just a bunch of chatter. I have confidence in Secretary Esper.”
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Republicans on the Hill also fear the political headache of trying to rush a high-profile Defence Department nominee through the Senate in a fraught political moment and a heated election.
One administration official and another person close to the White House said McCarthy could be next in line if Esper does flame out. McCarthy is another member of the so-called “Army mafia” that has risen to power during Trump’s tenure, along with Urban, Pompeo, Esper, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley and Army chief of staff General James McConville.
McCarthy is not only well-connected in Washington but is also a former Army Ranger – he served in the 75th Ranger Regiment during the invasion of Afghanistan. He later served in the Pentagon as special assistant to former Defence Secretary Bob Gates. McCarthy also worked on what is now the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and as a vice-president at defence contractor Lockheed Martin.
As Army secretary, McCarthy spearheaded a campaign to modernise the force and efforts to meet recruiting goals. In the last few months, he has been one of the faces of the Pentagon’s Covid-19 response, appearing multiple times in the Pentagon briefing room to discuss changes to Army training, testing on Army facilities and Army researchers’ efforts to develop a vaccine.
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A Harvard-educated lawyer and former Army captain with deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, Cotton is close to Trump and an outspoken Republican hawk who has been a consistent hardliner on Iran and China. But Cotton is running unopposed for re-election in November, and has an influential voice in the Senate. It’s considered unlikely he would take a Cabinet position and give up his seat so close to the election.
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When asked about the Insurrection Act and chatter in Washington that Esper might be out of a job, Cotton would only comment that the use of the law is up to the president.
“Ultimately that’s not a decision for the secretary of defence to make, it’s not a decision for a senator to make, it is a decision for the president to make,” Cotton said on Fox News.
As always, Trump could change his mind at any minute. But at least two White House aides believe that Esper, while on shaky ground, is likely to keep his job for now.
“I don’t think any change is going to happen unless Esper opens his mouth up again [before] the election,” said a Republican close to the White House. But the person noted that Trump did not like Esper’s comments on Wednesday.
“He doesn’t want to send troops,” the person said of Trump. “This is a classic Trump negotiating thing and he just wants to threaten these governors and mayors. He doesn’t want somebody undercutting his negotiating position. That’s his problem with Esper.”
A former senior White House official compared Esper’s situation to what happened in February when Attorney General William Barr publicly urged Trump to stop tweeting about the Justice Department, saying it made his job “impossible.”
“In Esper’s case, [his point was] this is not legal,” the former official said. “If everything stays hunky dory for the next week and nothing happens, Esper will be fine.”
