Politico | Yes, Biden is thrashing Trump. But he could still blow it
- Biden’s polling lead over Trump is significant – an average of just under nine percentage points – but not unprecedented
- So much has changed so quickly – so far, much of it to Biden’s advantage – that it’s impossible to rule out any kind of black swan political event
This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by David Siders on politico.com on July 4, 2020.
As recently as one month ago, Donald Trump was merely losing. Now he is flailing, trudging into the Independence Day weekend at the nadir of his presidency, trailing by double digits in recent polls and in danger of dragging the Republican Senate down with him.
But there are still four months before the election – and any number of ways for Biden to blow it.
Even the best campaigns “can get f***** up”, said Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains candidates across the country. “There are a million ways to lose.”
Biden might say the wrong thing at a debate, or have an awkward moment in an interview or at a press conference. Trump’s massive advertising campaign might begin to resonate, hurting Biden’s favourability ratings. Biden’s campaign might make poor decisions about spending allocations in the battleground states, or the coverage of his campaign may sour if he loses even a percentage point or two in polls. Presidential candidates with large leads have all suffered from less.
And then there are the factors outside of Biden’s control. It is possible that Trump before November will announce a coronavirus vaccine, whether real or imagined. And it is possible that the economy will improve, a prospect Republicans are pinning their hopes to.
