PoliticoPOLITICO’s Election Forecast: Donald Trump, Senate Republicans in trouble
- Donald Trump’s falling political fortunes have tilted the electoral map in Joe Biden’s favour and made battlegrounds out of more Senate states
This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Steven Shepard on politico.com on July 6, 2020.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s lead over Trump is swelling to roughly 10 points nationally – and for the first time, our forecast classifies Biden as the clear favourite in the race.
The national atmosphere is toxic enough that Senate Republicans, who currently hold a three-seat majority, no longer have a significant edge in their quest to retain control of the chamber next year. Democrats have both built leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs and put new states firmly on the map, expanding their path to a majority and potential unified control of government in 2021.
POLITICO’s Election Forecast is a long-term, qualitative examination of the political landscape, from the presidential campaign down to the congressional-district level. It is based on continual interviews with strategists and operatives, polling and other data streams and the electoral and demographic trends driving the 2020 campaign. It is a more deliberative approach than a statistical model, which can be helpful in cutting through polls and other data sources but can also shift from day-to-day with little rationale for the changes.
From the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s standing with voters has suffered, with a majority disapproving of his handling of the emergency. But with Americans more dissatisfied than ever after four months since the coronavirus became a dominant force in the country – and with the same period of time to go until Election Day – the shift toward Democrats is both real and durable, though it’s not irreversible.