Biden vows to repair alliances damaged by Trump but the world has changed too much
- More US allies have their own versions of Trump in office, from Poland to the Philippines, while others have absorbed parts of his nationalist agenda
- Above all, China has become increasingly willing to confront Washington, creating a radically altered geopolitical landscape
At last year’s Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of military chiefs and political leaders, former US vice-president Joe Biden made a promise to America’s allies: “This too shall pass,” he assured them. “We will be back.”
Yet returning the US and its alliances to a time before Trump is probably unachievable, and only in part because he has changed the US since his January 2017 inauguration in ways that may be irreversible. Just as important, the rest of the world changed too.
More US allies have their own versions of Trump in office, from Poland to the Philippines, while others have absorbed at least elements of his nationalist agenda. Even close partners have learned to be wary of a less predictable US partner.
“Even under Biden, as old-school Atlanticist as you can get, it will be a long road back for the United States, and some things have changed forever,” said Adam Thomson, a former UK ambassador to Nato who now heads the European Leadership Network, a think tank that draws on former defence officials from across the continent.
“Europeans will never be quite so sure of the US security guarantee; Iranians and many others will never completely trust a US signature on a treaty; and everyone will want to be less dependent – if they can – on US trade and the US dollar,” Thomson said.