Early US election voting breaks records. Will it hurt Donald Trump?
- Strong early voting turnout comes as Joe Biden maintains a national polling lead over President Donald Trump
- Americans could be voting earlier because they’re wary about the performance of the US Postal Service
More than 4.2 million people have already voted early in the presidential election, vastly exceeding the pace of 2016 as Democrats amass a commanding lead in returned mail ballots.
In the 2016 election, around 75,000 people had voted early at this point, across significantly fewer states that had started early voting and reporting their numbers, according to the United States Elections Project.
The current national aggregation of in-person and mail-in vote totals includes more than 20 states that have started early voting ahead of the November 3 election.
Two factors help explain the massive spike. Several states have changed laws since four years ago to either offer early voting or expand early voting periods. In addition, as expected for months, more people are taking advantage of early voting, particularly voting by mail, amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“Yes, some of it’s supply, but most of it’s demand,” said Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, who manages the United States Elections Project, which is tracking early voting totals.
The strong early voting turnout comes as Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintains a strong national polling lead over President Donald Trump.
Some voters could be voting earlier because they’re wary about the performance of the US Postal Service and want to get their ballots in the mail as soon as possible. Yet when combined with the long queues at in-person polling places as well, it’s likely voters are more excited about this election than 2016.
11:15
Trump vs Biden: The 2020 US presidential election
Virginia has had the most early voters so far with 714,000, followed by the battleground states of Florida (701,000) and Wisconsin (545,000).
But it is South Dakota that has seen the greatest percentage of increase in voters in relation to 2016 overall turnout. Already 23 per cent of South Dakota’s 2016 overall turnout has voted early. That’s followed by Virginia (18 per cent of its 2016 overall turnout), Wisconsin (18 per cent) and Wyoming (15 per cent).
“Those are just staggering numbers to see that many people have already voted in these states,” McDonald said.
He called it “good news” for voters and election officials who feared a rush of mail-ballots around Election Day. “We’re no longer looking at potentially this huge crush of ballots that are going to come in right at the end of the election.”
Why the Pence-Harris VP debate has unprecedented significance
Good news for Democrats, but bad news for Republicans? Not so fast
It might not be good news, however, for Trump and Republicans, who are lagging considerably behind Democrats in the number of mail ballots submitted.
Democrats have accounted for 55 per cent, or 830,000, of the 1.5 million people who have voted by mail across the seven early-voting states where voters register by party: Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and South Dakota. Republicans have accounted for 24 per cent, or 361,000 mail votes, in these seven states. Voters with no party affiliation have made up 21 per cent, or 319,000 votes.
The advantage for Democrats comes after they requested nearly twice as many mail ballots nationwide than Republicans, likely the result of Trump’s months-long assault on the legitimacy of mail ballots.
“There isn’t a reason for Republicans to panic just because Democrats are ‘winning’ the mail vote,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster, who has worked for Senator Ted Cruz, Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He said the numbers reflect a mail-voting advantage for Democrats that polls forecast long ago. “Every vote counts just once whether it is cast today or cast on Election Day.”
“That being said,” he added, “the concerning thing for Republicans has to be that once a Democratic vote is cast it can’t be taken back. So our window to message and convert any of these voters away from voting for Democrats is shorter than the number of days left in the campaign.”
Wilson said “right now the polls favour Democrats”. The more their votes get cast early, he said, the less time Republican candidates have to reverse things “before all we’re producing is regrets from people who already cast their ballots.
Trump again refuses to promise a peaceful transfer of power if he loses
In Florida – a state where Republicans historically have a strong advantage with mail voting – 372,000 Democrats have returned mail ballots, compared to 197,000 Republicans. In North Carolina, 202,000 Democrats have returned mail ballots, more than triple the 66,000 Republicans who have. Thirty-five per cent of North Carolina Democrats who requested mail ballots have returned them, compared to 29 per cent of Republicans.
Even in ultraconservative South Dakota, where Trump won the 2016 election by 30 percentage points, Democrats have returned nearly as many mail ballots (26,900), as Republicans (29,699). Fifty-seven per cent of South Dakota Democrats who requested mail ballots have returned them, a greater share than the 45 per cent of South Dakota Republicans.
“Trump supporters have been listening to the president, his rhetoric about mail-ballot fraud, and they decided not to vote by mail,” McDonald said, adding that not only did Democrats request more mail ballots than Republicans, they are also returning them at higher rates.
“Both of these things are highly unusual. Usually more Republicans vote by mail and they return their ballots at a higher rate when it is also said and done. To see things turned on their head is very unusual.”
Trump’s postmaster general backs down on mail service cuts after election outcry
Samantha Zager, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, said that despite Democrats leading in mail-voting, it isn’t by the ratio Biden needs. “The math simply isn’t adding up the way Democrats expected,” she said.
“Across multiple states, Democrats are failing to outpace Republican ballot requests and returns by the ratio Democrats need to win, which is why we’ve seen them shift to a push for in-person voting.”
Mandi Merritt, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, also expressed confidence.
“Our voters are highly motivated by their enthusiasm for President Trump and are going to vote – many just prefer to vote in person either by early voting or on Election Day.”
Polling has shown that Trump voters were nearly twice as likely to vote on Election Day than Democrats. Stressing “this election’s not over”, McDonald said it’s possible that Republicans make up the disadvantage with in-person Election Day.
McDonald is among election experts who predicted a historically high turnout presidential race even before votes were cast. He estimated last year 150 million people would vote in the 2020 election, 12 million more than the 138 million in 2016. It would make the election the highest turnout ever for a presidential election by raw votes and the highest rate among eligible voters since 1908.
