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US presidential election 2020
WorldUnited States & Canada

Politico | Trump vs Biden: the 8 states that will decide the 2020 US election

  • Donald Trump is running out of time to change his fate in the key 2020 battlegrounds
  • Joe Biden predicted to win in most election forecasts. He also holds a robust lead in national polls

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POLITICO has identified as critical battlegrounds – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Joe Biden has a lead in all but one of them. Photo: TNS
POLITICO

This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported on politico.com on October 14, 2020.

Donald Trump is cratering among women in the suburbs, losing support among senior citizens and facing a wave of Democratic early voting.

With less than three weeks left until November 3, Trump faces as daunting a challenge to re-election as any incumbent president in a quarter-century.

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Joe Biden is predicted to win in most election forecasts . He also holds a robust lead in the national polls – 10 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. And in the 8 states POLITICO has identified as critical battlegrounds – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Biden has a lead in all but one of them.

The selection of these swing states is based on a variety of factors – polling, demography, past and recent election history, voter registration, interviews with state and local party officials, strategists and pollsters. The individual campaigns have also revealed the places they are prioritising through staffing, resource allocation, TV and radio advertising and candidate visits.

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When POLITICO first chronicled these swing states after Labour Day, the road map ahead for Trump and Biden was clear. The president needed to max out his performance with rural voters, halt his erosion in the suburbs, and turn out white working-class voters who didn’t vote in 2016. Biden needed a big turnout in the big cities – particularly among African-American voters – increase his share among Latino voters and recapture some of the places that flipped to Trump after twice voting for President Barack Obama.

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Trump vs Biden: The 2020 US presidential election

Trump vs Biden: The 2020 US presidential election
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