As US election looms, European governments worry about possibility of disputed result

Trump has sent mixed signals about whether he would accept a peaceful transfer of power if he loses to Biden, suggesting the Supreme Court may have to intervene

A contested result could risk a leadership vacuum for other countries to exploit. Geopolitical analysts are concerned, for example, that China might move against Taiwan

2-MIN READ2-MIN

Former vice-president Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in opinion polls. Photo: AFP

Published: 8:09pm, 19 Oct 2020Updated: 8:09pm, 19 Oct 2020

With less than three weeks until the US presidential election, European capitals are concerned about the risk of a disputed outcome and the impact it would have in the United States and abroad.

While Democrat candidate Joe Biden leads in opinion polls, the 2016 election produced a split between the popular vote and the Electoral College. Analysts say that remains possible on November 3.

With Trump equivocating on whether he would accept a peaceful transfer of power if he loses, and suggesting the Supreme Court may have to decide the winner, the risk of a contested result is significant.

In major European capitals, where many quietly hope the election will produce a change of president and a shift in US policy on issues from climate to trade, Nato and the Iran nuclear deal, caution prevails.

“The majority of EU governments hope for a Biden victory, although no one would say that,” said one EU diplomat. “Governments are looking at scenarios, contingency plans, although it remains to be seen what could be done in the case of Trump contesting the result.”

German officials have been thinking through the implications for months – since Trump raised doubts about whether he would accept the outcome. “We analyse what could happen, different scenarios,” one said.

Presidential elections have been disputed in the past, as in 2000, when lawyers for Al Gore and George W. Bush spent a month arguing over a Florida recount that the Supreme Court ultimately decided in Bush’s favour.

But a dispute this time could last longer and be more unpredictable, officials say, including the risk of violence on the streets, legal challenges and the chance Trump refuses to vacate the White House.