Explainer | Trump vs Biden: what happens if the 2020 US election is contested?
- Trump has not committed to letting a peaceful transfer of power happen if he loses the election
- Presidency could be decided by some combination of courts, state politicians and Congress
US President Donald Trump has claimed without evidence that unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots will lead to widespread fraud by Democrats in the November presidential election. The president has also repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if the vote count indicates he has lost to Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
The comments have Democrats worried that Trump’s campaign will seek to dispute the election results. Here are some of the messy scenarios at play:
Lawsuits
Early voting data showed Democrats voting by mail in far greater numbers than Republicans. In states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that do not count mail-in ballots until Election Day, initial results could skew in Trump’s favour, experts say, while the mail ballots counted more slowly are expected to favour Biden. Democrats have expressed concern that Trump will declare victory on election night and then claim mail-in ballots counted in the following days are tainted by fraud.
A close election could result in litigation over voting and ballot-counting procedures in battleground states. Cases filed in individual states could eventually reach the US Supreme Court, as Florida’s election did in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush prevailed over Democrat Al Gore by just 537 votes in Florida after the high court halted a recount.
Trump pushed the Republican-held Senate to confirm Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court justice, which would create a 6-3 conservative majority that could favour the president if the courts weigh in on a contested election.