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US election 2020: Donald Trump’s path to victory rests on polling fiasco way worse than 2016
- In some of the decisive states, the polls would have to be wrong to a significant greater – greater than the errors in 2016 – for Trump to win
- It’s not impossible, but you have to squint to see how Biden’s lead won’t hold up on Election Day
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This story is published in a content partnership with POLITICO. It was originally reported by Steven Shepard on politico.com on October 30, 2020.
US President Donald Trump still has a path to a second term. But it would take a polling debacle that would make 2016 look like a banner year.
According to a series of battleground state polls conducted and released in the week following the last Trump-Biden debate, the president’s chances of winning a second term now require winning states where he still trails with only days to go until voting concludes.
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In most of the core swing states, Joe Biden has maintained a stable – though not overwhelming – lead over Trump in polls over the past few months, continuing into the final week of the election.
Some of the state polling averages have tightened slightly since the last debate, though Biden remains consistently ahead. In three live-interview polls of Florida all released on Thursday, Biden led Trump by between 3 and 5 points.
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Trump vs Biden: The 2020 US presidential election
Trump vs Biden: The 2020 US presidential election
In some of the potentially decisive states, like Pennsylvania, the polls would have to be wrong to a significant greater – greater than the errors in 2016 – for Trump to win. The latest polling averages show Biden with a 5-point lead.
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