US election: A close vote will fuel Russian disinformation, officials say

The Russian effort in a close contest would probably focus on casting doubt on the integrity of the vote, officials and analysts say

A decisive victory on November 3 for either candidate, however, means less fertile ground for Russia in the immediate aftermath of the election

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Russia remains a concern for many US officials given its continued brazenness in trying to influence American politics. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 10:11am, 1 Nov 2020Updated: 8:44pm, 1 Nov 2020

Russia will continue to use disinformation to attempt to meddle in American politics no matter who wins the November 3 presidential election, but a close result would intensify its efforts, current and former US officials warned.

The Russian effort in a close contest would probably focus on casting doubt on the integrity of the vote, the officials said. US intelligence has assessed that Russia is working to undermine former Vice-President Joe Biden’s campaign.

“If it is close, expect a lot of noise about voter fraud and miscounting,” said James Lewis, director of the strategic technologies programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This will happen in any case, but the Russians will amplify it.”

One scenario troubling US officials is the possibility of simple, highly visible tactics that may create distrust about the integrity of the vote. For example, overwhelming state and local websites with traffic until they go offline – a tactic known as distributed denial of service, or DDoS for short – could create concern about the election’s integrity, which could be fanned on social media, according to an official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

A close election would probably exacerbate the problem. The US government has warned that if the vote count takes days, criminals and foreign actors might spread disinformation including “reports of voter suppression, cyberattacks targeting election infrastructure, voter or ballot fraud or other problems intended to convince the public of the elections’ illegitimacy”.

Officials are bracing for disinformation in the aftermath of the election regardless of the outcome, but the intensity of Kremlin influence operations – both in the days and the years that follow – will depend on how the election plays out. A decisive victory on November 3 for either candidate, however, means less fertile ground for Russia in the immediate aftermath of the election.

Since 2016, other foreign powers have picked up Russian tactics. US intelligence is also warning that Iran and China are working to sway voters to advance their geopolitical goals. National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director William Evanina said in a July statement that Russia prefers Trump, while China and Iran prefer Biden.