Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment. In 2016, he had congratulated Trump within hours of his victory being declared.

Trump and the two Latin leaders are united by some surface similarities: they dislike wearing masks during the coronavirus pandemic, and all three can loosely be described as populist and nationalist. But the motives of the two Latin leaders may differ.

Bolsonaro and his sons – who like Trump’s children play a role on the political scene – seem to be actively uncomfortable with the outcome of the US race. Bolsonaro, who previously expressed hope for Trump’s re-election and whose son wore hats with the logo “Trump 2020”, has kept largely silent this week, but his sons have not.

Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro posted images on social media questioning how Biden’s votes were rising so quickly in later counts, while Trump’s were not. The younger Bolsonaro also questioned networks’ decision to cut away from Trump’s speech on Wednesday alleging vote fraud, calling it an attack on freedom of speech.

A senior official of the Brazilian Embassy in the United States, who cannot identify himself for fear of reprisals, said Brazilian officials fear that loose talk by Bolsonaro or his sons could destabilise relations between countries.

Officials in the office of the presidency, who were not authorised to speak on the record, said Bolsonaro has been adopting a more pragmatic tone, at least since Wednesday, following the guidance of his advisers.

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At the beginning of the week, some of the more ideological elements in Bolsonaro’s office believed in a Trump victory, but since then, the diplomatic staff has made contact with Biden’s campaign.

Lopez Obrador’s cordial relationship with Trump, meanwhile, was often seen as unusual for a left-leaning politician, but it had a workmanlike basis.

In part, that is political realism: in 2019, Trump threatened to apply crippling tariffs on Mexican products unless Lopez Obrador cracked down on Central American migrants crossing Mexico to reach the US border. Mexico complied, rounding up migrants and busing them back to their home countries.

But there were also moments of seeming real friendship between the two. On Saturday, Lopez Obrador was one of the few world leaders still willing to heap praise on Trump.

“President Trump has been very respectful of us, and we have reached very good agreements, and we thank him because he has not interfered and has respected us,” Lopez Obrador said.

And Lopez Obrador angered many at home and in the US Democratic Party when he made his first – and so far only – trip abroad as president over the summer to meet Trump to celebrate the enactment of the new US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, which both leaders viewed as fixing problems with the old North American Free Trade Agreement of the 1990s.

Lopez Obrador did not meet Biden or his campaign team during that trip, and the wounds are still apparently there, even though the Mexican president said he knows Biden and had “very good relations” with him.

Joaquin Castro, the Democratic congressman for Texas’ 20th District, wrote in Spanish in his Twitter account that the unwillingness to congratulate Biden “represents a true diplomatic failure on the part of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, at a moment in which the incoming Biden administration is seeking to start a new era of friendship and cooperation with Mexico”.

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Congressman Jesus Garcia, a Democrat from Illinois’ 4th District, wrote in a similar vein to Lopez Obrador that “American voters have spoken and Joe Biden is our President Elect. He won fair and square. Don’t miss the boat.”

Democrats are unlikely to be as vindictive toward Mexico as the Trump administration once appeared to be, with its focus on building a border wall and threats of punishing tariffs. But a Biden administration that only quietly presses Mexico to limit migrant crossings could leave Lopez Obrador in a more uncomfortable position.

02:30

Celebrations erupt across the US as Biden named winner in presidential election

Celebrations erupt across the US as Biden named winner in presidential election

Mexico was able to easily crack down on migrant caravans in 2019 and 2020 because appeasing open US pressure is fairly understandable if distasteful at home; but asking Mexico to do so without open threats would be more politically costly for López Obrador.

The Mexican president might fear reprisals in the short time Trump has left in office, but his failure to patch up any hurt feelings with the Biden team is already exposing López Obrador to criticism at home.

“To quote (Mexican singer) Juan Gabriel, “What do you gain?” the newspaper El Universal wrote in an editorial on Sunday. “Donald Trump will be president for two more months, but Joe Biden will be president for four more years! And we have already started off this relationship on the wrong foot.”