China and Russia could fill void in Middle East if US reduces its presence, senior general warns
- Leaders in the region worry that worry America’s pivot to Asia means they will be left without the troops, ships, aircraft and other military aid
- ‘Russia and China will be looking very closely to see if a vacuum opens that they can exploit,’ Marine General Frank McKenzie said
While travelling through the Middle East over the past week, Marine General Frank McKenzie, who heads US Central Command, fielded a persistent question from the military and political leaders he met: is the US still committed to their country and the region, and what more support can they get?
And if the US is slow to respond, they may look elsewhere for help.
“The Middle East writ broadly is an area of intense competition between the great powers. And I think that as we adjust our posture in the region, Russia and China will be looking very closely to see if a vacuum opens that they can exploit,” McKenzie told reporters travelling with him. “I think they see the United States shifting posture to look at other parts of the world and they sense there may be an opportunity there.”
The effort to restart talks with Iran triggers worries in a number of Middle East nations who rely on the US to maintain pressure on Tehran and its campaigns to fund and supply weapons to militant groups in the region.
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Military commanders caution that China’s growing assertiveness isn’t limited to Asia, noting that Beijing is aggressively seeking footholds in Africa, South America and the Middle East.
“I agree completely that China needs to be the pacing threat we orient on,” McKenzie said in the interview with reporters. “At the same time, we are a global power and we need to have a global outlook. And that means that you have the ability to consider the globe as a whole.”
In meetings on Sunday, Saudi leaders were “very concerned” about the ongoing US military posture review, McKenzie said. The kingdom is under almost daily bombardment from Houthi rebels with a variety of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and small drones. And Saudi leaders rely on the US to help them defend themselves.
McKenzie said his message to them was that the number of troops and weapons is not as important as the overall capability of the integrated US and Saudi air and missile defence system arrayed around the country.
More broadly, he said, that strategy of doing more in the region with less military presence may prevent China and Russia from cashing in on any US void.
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“I’m not sure it’s actually going to turn out to be an opportunity for them when it’s all said and done,” he said.
The troop numbers may not be the same as the hundreds of thousands that were in the region five to seven years ago, he said, but the US will have a presence in the region.
“I think we’re going to play a very smart game … to leverage what we have,” he said. “The United States is the partner of choice. It’s only when that option is not open are countries going to hedge and seek other opportunities.”