Top US spies predict more dangerous world as climate changes
- US spy community issues its first-ever National Intelligence Estimate on climate change – and it’s not pretty
- Report was issued just ahead of the United Nations COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland
Within a decade, the estimate warned, higher ocean temperatures and acidity could devastate already strained commercial fisheries, droughts could deplete critically important grain harvests and increased food and water scarcity could trigger widespread conflict, hoarding and potentially a global famine.
The diminished energy, food, and water security that follows – especially in swathes of South Asia, Africa and Latin America – will exacerbate poverty, tribal and ethnic tensions and dissatisfaction with governments to the point where some of them may fall, it said.
“Intensifying physical effects will exacerbate geopolitical flashpoints, particularly after 2030, and key countries and regions will face increasing risks of instability and need for humanitarian assistance,” the report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) concluded.
And while the developing world will bear the brunt of these challenges, the United States and other wealthy nations will most likely be responsible for managing the fallout from increasing global conflict and instability. For Washington, that will likely mean significant additional demands on its diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and military resources, the report said.