Why there’s more US mass shootings in warmer weather

While there are many causes behind the rising tide of gun violence in the United States, researchers suggest weather could play an increasingly important role

One report found temperatures 10 degrees higher than average were associated with a 33.8 per cent higher rate of shootings

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Visitors pay their respects at a memorial created to honour the victims of last week’s school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. Photo: AP

Published: 12:02pm, 4 Jun 2022Updated: 12:06pm, 4 Jun 2022

From the Texas school massacre to a Tulsa hospital shooting and many less-reported incidents, a recent spate of gun violence across America bears out a trend police departments have long sworn by: murders go up in warmer weather.

The link has been written about for decades by criminologists, with more recent research drilling down on the precise relationship between temperature and crime rates.

For those who have studied the question, there is common sense as well as potentially less obvious mechanisms at play.

Students protest against gun violence in the US at a rally in New York City on Friday. Photo: AFP

First, the more obvious: “It’s hard to shoot somebody if there’s nobody around,” said David Hemenway, a professor of health policy at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, explaining why gun crime is lower in bad weather.

A second, more controversial idea is that heat itself – as opposed to weather that encourages people to be out – might rev up conflict.

While there are many causes behind the rising tide of gun violence in the United States, weather could play an increasingly important role in a world that is fast warming due to climate change.

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