US Fed chairman pledges to tame high inflation by ‘using our tools forcefully’
- Jerome Powell also warns of ‘pain’ continuing for some time in highly anticipated remarks delivered at annual economic symposium
- Emphasis on ‘price stability’ follows Beijing meeting airing fears of global recession, financial shocks and worsening US-China ties
“We will keep at it until we’re confident the job is done,” Powell told the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, held in Wyoming since 1982. “It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States.”
Comments by US central bank officials tend to be purposefully vague as even a few words can send stocks and bonds soaring or plummeting. In his unusually short eight-minute speech, Powell said his remarks were meant to be direct and narrowly focused.
The former investment banker noted some modest cause for optimism, including a slight reduction in the July US inflation rate to 8.4 per cent from its record 8.5 per cent a month earlier. But growth is weakening, the job market remains overheated and a single month’s data is inconclusive.
Inflation expectations also risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, Powell added, powering an upwards spiral as households and companies raise wages and prices, leading to yet more inflation.
“Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy,” he said. “Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone.”
Markets fell after Powell’s speech, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading down more than 500 points for much of the day.
Could China’s ‘economic stalling’ derail push to be No 1 economy?
Raising interest rates can slow demand by making a range of auto, house and other loans more expensive. Global markets and central bankers will be closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee’s next interest rate move scheduled for September. The outcome will depend on how the US economy performs between now and then, Powell said.
But its implications extend farther afield, particularly for developing economies facing food shortages and high debt levels.
“That makes the situation very tough for China. When they’re cutting rates when every other country in the world is raising rates, money will flow elsewhere,” said Kevin Chen, chief economist at Horizon Financial and an adjunct professor at New York University.
“This is mainly because the Chinese economy needs stimulation. The real estate market is not doing very well and the whole economy needs stimulation, so it’s a totally different situation.”
China rules out ‘excessive stimulus’, but vows tweaks to zero Covid
Many investor expectations about the Chinese economy – that zero-Covid policies would not have such a negative economic impact, that underlying fundamentals were stronger and that Beijing would pour on fiscal and monetary stimulus as growth weakened – have been proved wrong, said Shehzad Qazi, managing director of the China Beige Book research group.
Powell’s comments come as the central bank tries to navigate a high-wire balancing act working with relatively blunt tools that take time to kick in.