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US midterm elections 2022
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Attendees at a rally in support of Democratic US Senate candidate John Fetterman, ahead of the closely watched Pennsylvania race. Photo: AFP

Explainer | US midterm elections: the Senate, House and governor races to watch

  • Control of the US House of Representatives and the Senate are contested in Tuesday’s midterm elections
  • Governor races in dozens of states could carry high stakes for issues such as abortion and guns

Tuesday’s US midterm elections will determine which party will control Congress, who will serve in governors’ mansions and who will define policies in dozens of states.

Control of the Senate may be decided in a handful of high-profile races in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which drew last-minute campaign stops from President Joe Biden and former presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

The fate of the House follows a similar storyline. Republican challengers in Virginia, Texas and Michigan are hitting candidates over the economy and other issues to gain enough seats to take control of the House. If Democrats lose control of either chamber, Biden’s ability to pass his agenda becomes more difficult.

Governor races in 36 states, including marquee matchups in Arizona and Michigan, will decide who will represent voters closer to home.

Ballot questions on policies ranging from abortion to marijuana and the environment are putting state policies in the hands of voters.

Here are the key races and ballot initiatives to watch:

Senate majority at stake

Republicans only need to gain one seat to win control of the Senate and with it the influence to stifle the remainder of Biden’s term.

Races have become closer in the lead-up to election day.

Pennsylvania: Mehmet Oz vs John Fetterman. Democrat Fetterman, who faced health issues during the campaign after suffering from a stroke, faces Republican Oz, a former celebrity doctor and TV host.

Georgia: Senator Raphael Warnock vs Herschel Walker. Democratic incumbent Warnock is defending his seat against Walker, a former NFL running back who made headlines during the campaign over a Daily Beast report he paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion.

Arizona: Senator Mark Kelly vs Blake Masters. Democrat Kelly is running against Trump-backed venture capitalist Blake Masters. Fox News’ Tucker Carlson has called Masters “the future of the Republican Party”.

New Hampshire: Senator Maggie Hassan vs Don Bolduc. Democratic Senator Hassan, a former New Hampshire governor, faces Republican candidate Bolduc, a retired army general who has received Trump’s endorsement.

Ohio: Congressman Tim Ryan vs JD Vance. Ryan, who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, faces off against Republican Vance, a Trump-backed candidate and a former venture capitalist and conservative commentator.

Will Republicans flip the House?

Republicans are vying to take the majority in the House with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy aiming to become House speaker. Analysts have predicted a Republican takeover of the House given high inflation and historical trends against the party in power.

Democrats are attacking conservatives on abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade in June.

Ohio: Congressman Steve Chabot vs Greg Landsman. Republican Chabot, who has represented the southwest Ohio district for more than 25 years, is running against Democratic candidate Landsman, a Cincinnati city councilman.

Virginia: Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger vs Yesli Vega. Moderate Democrat Spanberger faces Republican Vega, a Prince William County supervisor.

Nevada: Congresswoman Dina Titus vs Mark Robertson. Titus, the longest-serving member of the Nevada congressional delegation, is running against Republican Robertson, a businessman and financial planner who served in the military.

California: Congressman David Valadao vs Rudy Salas. Republican Valadao survived attacks from Trump after voting to impeach the former president to face off against Democrat Salas on election day.

Texas: Congresswoman Mayra Flores vs Congressman Vicente Gonzalez. Flores won a special election this summer. To serve a full term, the Republican has to win on election day against Democrat Gonzalez, who currently serves in the South Texas district.

Michigan: Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin vs Tom Barrett: Democrat Slotkin faces off against Barrett, a Republican state senator and US Army veteran.

Governor races to watch

Candidates for governor are running to lead their states at a time of record high inflation and an unstable economy.

Georgia: Governor Brian Kemp vs Stacey Abrams. Republican Kemp and Democrat Abrams are facing off again for the governor’s mansion after Abrams lost by half a percentage point in 2018.

Michigan: Governor Gretchen Whitmer vs Tudor Dixon. Democrat Whitmer, who faced criticism from Republicans for strictly enforcing Covid-19 rules during the pandemic, is running against Trump-backed Dixon.

Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vs Doug Mastriano. State attorney general and Democrat Shapiro is running against Mastriano, a state legislator and Trump-backed candidate.

Republican candidate for Arizona Governor Kari Lake. Photo: Reuters

Florida: Governor Ron DeSantis vs Charlie Crist. Republican DeSantis, who may be gearing up for a 2024 presidential bid, is defending his seat against Democrat Crist, a former Republican governor of Florida who switched parties and recently served in the House representing a district on the state’s Gulf coast.

Texas: Governor Greg Abbott vs Beto O’Rourke. Abbott is facing Democratic challenger O’Rourke, who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. The race is heavily leaning in Abbott’s favour.

Arizona: Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs: Trump-backed Lake, a former news anchor, has spread false claims about the 2020 election. She faces Hobbs, a Democrat and Arizona’s secretary of state.

Abortion, marijuana, healthcare

Voters have a chance this election year to shape public policy by voting on ballot initiatives ranging from outlawing slavery to increasing minimum wage and changing voter ID laws.

Many of those topics have stalled in Washington DC.

Abortion: Four states – California, Michigan, Kentucky and Vermont – will ask voters to vote on ballot referendums relating to abortion. In Michigan, voters will decide whether to explicitly enshrine a woman’s reproductive rights in the state constitution. Montana is asking voters to decide rules around infants “born-alive”.

Healthcare: South Dakota, one of 12 states that has not expanded Medicaid, will have an opportunity to expand Medicaid eligibility. In Oregon, a ballot initiative would ensure every resident “has access to cost-effective, clinically appropriate and affordable healthcare as a fundamental right”.

Marijuana: Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota and Maryland are looking to legalise marijuana for residents age 21 or older. In Missouri, a proposed amendment would decriminalise marijuana use.

Climate change: New York and California both have ballot referendums relating to the environment. New Yorkers will decide whether to support the issuance of US$4.2 billion in bonds for projects such as flood-risk reduction, coastal shoreline restoration and land conservation. California voters will decide whether to levy a new tax for zero-emission vehicles and wildfire prevention programmes.

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