ExplainerWhat the US midterm results could mean for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Tuesday’s US midterm elections could decide the political future of both President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump – who has all but announced he will seek the White House again in 2024. The midterms will determine control of Congress and with it, the fate of Biden’s agenda. Democrats are unlikely to retain control of both the House and Senate, analysts and experts project. With Republicans well-positioned to take control of at least the House, Biden is likely to face roadblocks as he finishes the last two years of his term. The degree to which Republicans can stall Biden’s agenda depends on their margins of victory after Tuesday’s elections. Here’s a look at some scenarios: A Republican House would open new investigations When Democrats took control of the House as part of the 2018 blue wave, they started a flurry of investigations into then-President Trump’s administration and his business dealings, including probes of his tax returns and later, the role he played in the January 6 Capitol attack. Republicans have been itching to do the same. If they get control of the House next year, expect a lot of investigations into Biden’s programmes and his son Hunter Biden’s financial dealings. Stakes high for Biden as America votes in crucial midterm elections Congressman James Comer, the top Republican on the House Oversight Committee, is expected to chair the most powerful investigative panel in the chamber. Comer has vowed to aggressively investigate Hunter Biden’s financial dealings and compliance with tax laws. A Republican majority could also open investigations into the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Department of Justice (DOJ). House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, positioned to become speaker of the House should the Republicans take the chamber, has vowed to immediately open a probe into the FBI’s search of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. “When Republicans take back the House, we will conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts and leave no stone unturned,” McCarthy said. Threat of impeachment Some House Republicans have been clamouring to impeach Biden if the Republicans take control of the House. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the Republican Conference’s most fiercely outspoken members, has introduced articles of impeachment against Biden multiple times. However, McCarthy has tried to temper conversations surrounding impeachment, telling reporters: “We will not play politics with it”. House Republicans are being cautious with impeachment. Such a move would garner high media attention and could backfire if voters disapprove. Several of them were in office during the 1990s, when the Republican Party’s impeachment of Bill Clinton led to the loss of some Republican congressional seats and boosted the president’s popularity. Even if Biden were impeached, the Senate would hold a trial that would require a two-thirds majority to convict Biden, a near-impossible task. Another possible impeachment target would be two of Biden’s Cabinet members: Attorney General Merrick Garland, for the DOJ’s investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents; and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, for the administration’s handling of the record migrant surge on the southern border. What legislation can pass? If the Republican Party takes back the Senate, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would reclaim his post as Senate majority leader, allowing him to set the chamber’s agenda. McConnell during his previous tenure as majority leader was criticised by opponents as an obstructionist. The self-proclaimed “grim reaper” of the Senate has already said he is “100 per cent” focused on stopping Biden’s agenda. Any Democratic legislation that arrives in the Senate would have to go through McConnell, who has in the past left plenty of Democratic House bills in legislative limbo. If the Republican Party takes the House, expect a Republican majority to push through legislation with traditional conservative points: tax cuts and a reduction in government spending. A House Republican agenda revealed in September titled a “Commitment to America” outlined various legislative goals for a Republican majority that also include increased fossil-fuel production. But with Biden still in the White House, the Republicans would have to contend with his veto pen. How do Trump’s candidates perform? Trump remains a dominant force in the Republican Party, but Tuesday’s contests will test his strength among the broader electorate. He is not on the ballot, of course, but dozens of Trump-endorsed candidates are. They include several controversial picks who beat out alternatives backed by the party’s establishment. Should Trump’s higher-profile endorsees struggle, it would raise questions about his political strength as he weighs a 2024 presidential run that could be launched shortly after the midterms. In Pennsylvania, Trump loyalist Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for governor, has struggled in the polls against Democrat Josh Shapiro. Trump’s pick for the Senate, Dr Mehmet Oz, is locked in a close race with Democrat John Fetterman. In Arizona, gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Senate contender Blake Masters, who both promoted Trump’s lies of a stolen 2020 election, are in position to win. Other Trump loyalists to watch: Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance, North Carolina Senate contender Ted Budd, Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon and New York gubernatorial hopeful Lee Zeldin. Tattooed titan, TV doctor spar in key US midterm debate The 2024 impact In ways big and small, the 2022 midterms will help shape the 2024 election. A bad night for Democrats could undermine Biden’s rationale for a second term. And Trump would almost certainly seize on sweeping Republican victories as evidence of his political strength ahead of a third prospective White House bid. Good-government advocates are particularly worried about dozens of election deniers running for state office across several presidential battlegrounds. In Nevada, Republican Jim Marchant is running to become the secretary of state, the state’s chief elections official. Marchant is head of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, a collection of Trump loyalists who falsely say the 2020 election was plagued by voter fraud. It’s the same in Arizona and Michigan, where fellow coalition members Mark Finchem and Kristina Karamo are running for secretary of state. And in Pennsylvania, Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, another vocal election denier, would have the authority, if he wins, to appoint his own chief elections official. Election administration aside, other statewide candidates could use a strong showing on Tuesday to position themselves for the 2024 ticket. Lake, Arizona’s Republican candidate for governor, is already thought to be a potential Trump running mate. And in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis, who is running for re-election Tuesday, is also considering a 2024 presidential bid, whether Trump runs or not. Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse