Analysis | Jailing Trump for contempt in hush money trial could spell political trouble for ex-president
- Jailing Trump would almost certainly inflame his already loyal base of supporters and in their minds further Trump’s narrative he is being politically persecuted
- But being jailed – even for a brief time – would remind other voters of the chaos that has routinely followed Trump, including the attack on the US Capitol
If the judge overseeing Donald Trump’s hush money trial is to be taken at his word, America could be careening toward an unprecedented moment: A former US president behind bars.
Justice Juan Merchan on Monday threatened Trump with jail time for repeatedly violating a gag order in the criminal case under way in Manhattan, although Merchan said it is a step he is reluctant to take.
Jailing Trump would almost certainly inflame his already loyal base of supporters and in their minds further Trump’s narrative that he is being politically persecuted, an argument that helped him win the 2024 Republican nomination.
But being jailed – even for a brief time – would remind other voters of the chaos that has routinely followed Trump, including the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, several political analysts said.
That could be particularly damaging for Trump with voters who remain undecided between him and Democratic President Joe Biden and are just tuning into the race with six months to go before the November election, the analysts said.
Some of those voters may be turned off by the sordid details of Trump’s alleged tryst with a porn star and his attempts to cover the affair up, said Chris Stirewalt, an election analyst with the conservative American Enterprise Institute.