Opinion | South China Sea: US, Chinese commitments to avoid open conflict are about to be tested

Leaders of the Philippines, US and Japan will meet this week in Washington for unprecedented summit

Hostilities have intensified over contested Second Thomas Shoal as worries grow over potential flashpoint with China

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Tensions over the South China Sea are expected to rise this week as the leaders of the Philippines, the US and Japan are expected to announce joint naval patrols in the disputed regions during a summit in Washington. Photo: AFP

Published: 8:21pm, 9 Apr 2024

US-China ties are about to sail into choppy waters as military tensions in the South China Sea approach a boiling point.

Many fear the escalating row over the contested Second Thomas Shoal between China and the Philippines could become the most likely flashpoint in the event of an armed conflict between the two superpowers.

China appears to have temporarily gained an upper hand with its “grey zone” tactics, including the use of water cannons, but the Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, has remained defiant, intent on fighting back while tilting decisively towards Washington.

Aside from plans to grant the United States access to more Philippine military bases – some strategically located near Taiwan – Manila on Sunday conducted joint exercises with the US, Japan and Australia near the contested waters.

In a statement, the Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) slammed the four-nation drills as “military activities that mess up the situation in the South China Sea and create hotspots”, adding that things were fully “under control”.

Beijing has also geared up for a possible conflict, organising several recent live-fire naval drills and on Sunday “joint naval and air combat patrols”, while accusing Manila of provocations and playing “the victimised underdog” in a bid for international sympathy.

Tensions will heat up further this week as Marcos is expected to unveil plans at a summit in Washington on Thursday with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to launch joint naval patrols in the South China Sea.

US seputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell last week compared the trilateral gathering to the landmark Camp David summit last year among the leaders of the US, Japan and South Korea, cementing their de facto military alliance.

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