Editorial | Return of Trump to White House can only mean more of the same for China
US voters put their faith in former president who launched trade war with Beijing, sanctioned Hong Kong officials and targeted globalisation
After a tight and tumultuous race that captured the attention of the world, voters in a deeply divided America have spoken and returned Donald Trump to the White House. The defeat of Vice-President Kamala Harris no doubt came as a shock to many who had pinned hopes on the United States electing its first woman president, and to those who underestimated the resilience of the former president’s populist message among voters.
Both had argued that they were the candidate of change. But in the corridors of power in Beijing, change was never really part of the equation. China long ago determined that, regardless of who was elected, there would be continuity of US policy that has for the best part of a decade been marked by tensions over trade, Taiwan and bipartisan efforts to curb China’s growing power.
That is not expected to change. A Harris win would likely have led to a smoother transition as China’s officials and ministries had grown accustomed to working with their counterparts in the current administration over four years and benefited from the predictability. Ties with a new Trump team will have to start from scratch.
But at the end of the day, there was little daylight between the China policy of Trump, who launched a trade war and ramped up tariffs, and that of President Joe Biden, who maintained the tariffs and added more on electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells. Biden also barred Beijing from importing high-end chips, and enlisted allies to redraw supply chains to diversify away from China.
Trump will have an outsize role in shaping a world economy that has become increasingly fragmented. Three decades of globalisation lowered tariff barriers and boosted trade along with China’s economy, but hollowed out manufacturing in the developed world. Trump began to push back against globalisation in his first administration and is certain to continue the charge with a new four-year term that will be marked by his isolationist tendencies.
A new battleground
None of this is news to Beijing. After US efforts to curb its technological advance, China will brace for a new battleground focusing on industrial capacity, in which the US uses tariffs as the stick to bar imports and its huge market as the carrot to draw foreign investment. A new front to reshape the global economy will put China firmly in the crosshairs as it has a massive 31 per cent share of global manufacturing.