My TakeAll bets are off on legal basketball wagers in Hong Kong
The shelved plan has, at least, sparked needed debate about gambling and the damaging social impact of addiction
The ability to predict the outcome of events, from wars and elections to cup finals or the weather, is a skill well worth possessing in an uncertain world. A successful look into the crystal ball can bring great riches but also lead to devastating financial loss.
Prediction markets, online platforms that allow speculators to buy a stake in the yes or no result of a diverse array of events, have soared in popularity in recent years. They are styled as financial products, but are, in practice, a form of gambling.
The platforms threaten to disrupt the global betting industry and have led to concerns about insider trading, contractual disputes and a lack of regulation. Now, they have been cited as the prime motivation for a sudden policy U-turn in Hong Kong.
Last week, the government announced that a landmark plan to legalise betting in the city on basketball matches has been suspended. This was a surprise, as the move was well-advanced and expected to launch within months.
The initiative was announced in the budget, in February last year, and was quickly followed by a one-month public consultation. Legislation to permit the new channel for sports betting, joining horse racing and football, was passed in September. There was no suggestion there was a problem.
But the government now says it needs more time to consider the growing impact of prediction markets, fearing the introduction of lawful betting on basketball would fuel greater interest and participation in gambling on the platforms, which is illegal in Hong Kong.