For Southeast Asia to survive climate change, timid effort is not enough

With its long coastlines that leave it vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather, the region must adopt a comprehensive strategy that includes not just reinforcing coastal defences but also restoring the environment and moving people inland

Mohammad Yunus

Published: 3:45pm, 2 Apr 2024

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Earlier this year, the World Economic Forum published its 2024 Global Risks Report and named climate change as one of the most perilous crises we face. The many coastal communities in Southeast Asia need no reminding.

Southeast Asia’s long coastlines leave it vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather. Rising sea levels and erosion are already swallowing homes along the region’s coastline, and will affect millions of people as they worsen. Big cities, small fishing villages and surrounding ecosystems face the risk of submersion and disappearance. Can these communities adapt in time?

Yes, but urgent action is required. A regional strategy needs to focus on relocating people, reinforcing infrastructure and restoring the environment to safeguard its coastlines. Waiting around will only exacerbate the problem and result in significantly higher costs later.

We must acknowledge that some areas are already past the point of no return. In places where the coastline has moved too far inland, the practical solution is to relocate communities out of harm’s way using organised, incentive-based plans.

While this might sound extreme, it gives people a chance to settle in safer areas instead of constantly rebuilding in submerged zones. Meanwhile, uninhabitable coastal areas can be repurposed for restoration, acting as buffers against future erosion.

In densely populated cities where relocation isn’t an option, the coast must be fortified with concrete sea walls and breakwaters to fend off rising tides. If we get it right, these structures can shield urban coastal areas. But as sea levels keep rising, those fortifications will eventually get swamped and require rebuilding even higher.

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Thus, long-term solutions need to focus on restoring the environment alongside any efforts to reinforce coastal defences. Planting mangrove forests is a prime example. These forests act as natural barriers by trapping soil around their roots, which helps to lower wave energy and tidal currents. They are also great at absorbing carbon, which helps slow down sea level rise.

Mangroves not only fend off water intrusion but also provide a habitat for marine life. This means more opportunities for coastal communities to make a living through activities such as shellfish gathering and fishing. Unlike rigid sea walls, mangroves can adapt and move as coastlines change, all while continuing to provide crucial habitats.

Why should those outside Southeast Asia care about this issue? Entire economic sectors such as fisheries, shipping and tourism are at risk from coastal erosion. Countries relying on these industries for income and employment could face economic crises.

Moreover, coastal population displacement poses a humanitarian crisis that could lead to climate-induced refugee waves. Estimates suggest 49 million people in East Asia and the Pacific will be displaced by climate crises by 2050. High-risk migration points include coastal areas threatened by sea level rise, water scarcity and declining agricultural productivity. This could trigger regional instability as countries struggle to absorb and accommodate migrants, leading to larger conflicts over increasingly precious resources.

In the context of coastal cities, the most affected countries are also those with the largest populations, such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. By 2025, more than 66 million people in Southeast Asian coastal cities will live below sea level, with the most affected cities including Jakarta, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. The impact of rising sea levels on trade, finance and international stability is estimated at US$724 billion by 2030.

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Implementing a comprehensive coastal protection strategy in Southeast Asia is neither easy nor cheap. However, it is an investment that will prevent much costlier damage in the future. Binding international agreements between countries are needed to coordinate relocation, infrastructure and restoration efforts with shared funding obligations based on each country’s resources and vulnerability levels.

Developing countries with limitations should receive technical and financial assistance from wealthy countries and organisations such as the World Bank and United Nations. As this global crisis is caused by significant emissions from wealthy countries in the past, such programmes should be modelled on the recently established loss and damage fund to aid climate resilience efforts in vulnerable regions.

Equally important is forging public-private partnerships to fund coastal resilience projects and tap into local environmental groups to spearhead restoration initiatives. For example, community members and NGOs can collaborate to rebuild oyster reefs that protect against erosion or plant mangrove forests that can withstand storm surges. Encouraging individual “buy a mangrove” fundraising campaigns can allow individuals and corporations to directly support efforts at the local level.

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On a personal scale, those living along the Southeast Asian coastline are advised not to overinvest in coastal properties in at-risk areas. Rather than haphazard development in areas likely to be submerged, housing and infrastructure should be centralised inland to avoid future losses.

Climate change and rising sea levels have put Southeast Asia’s coastal areas at risk. However, this crisis can still be addressed if the right actions are taken promptly. While the coastline in this region might shift, adapting to the new reality through relocation, infrastructure reinforcement and restoration can help coastal communities thrive for future generations.

Mohammad Yunus is currently pursuing a master’s degree in biological sciences at Khon Kaen University, Thailand