My Take | What Asean really wants is to avoid a new cold war
- New survey shows Asean member states neither want China to threaten their security, nor the US to undermine their hard-won prosperity
Washington should be sweating. China has dethroned the United States as the preferred superpower partner in Southeast Asia. This is despite tensions in the South China Sea hyped by the US and its allies.
When asked which superpower they would align with if forced to do so, 50.5 per cent picked China against 49.5 per cent who chose the US.
It’s a very narrow margin and falls well within the margin of error. So, let’s say it’s a tie. That should still worry Washington because last year, the results were 61.1 per cent for the US, with 38.9 per cent for China. It’s worth pointing out that it’s a survey of elites, not ordinary citizens. So while it may not directly reflect popular sentiments, it can say a lot about the actual policy directions of the countries concerned.
There is another obvious conclusion: Southeast Asia doesn’t want to choose a side any more than Latin America and Africa. So while it’s par for the course that US allies need to follow Washington’s lead, the rest of the world, especially the Global South, don’t see it as being in their interests to join the superpower rivalry. Rather, they believe it can potentially cause a lot of harm.
That neutrality preference actually works against the US because it’s the one that has been overtly pressuring countries in key regions to take a side. Meanwhile, China would be perfectly happy for the rest of the world to sit on the fence.