Modi’s return to power would not mean the death of Indian democracy

There are real concerns, from the BJP’s Hindu nationalist rhetoric to media muzzling, but Modi’s likely re-election merely reflects his popularity
This should be a wake-up call for how the West views India. The country’s democracy is imperfect but it is more robust than might initially be perceived.

Chietigj Bajpaee

Published: 4:30pm, 26 May 2024

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According to India’s opposition politicians, the country’s democracy is on its deathbed. Congress party chief Mallikarjun Kharge said last month that “democracy will end” if Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to power for a third consecutive term.

However, as India’s seven-stage polls, the world’s largest electoral exercise, approach their climax – with the results due to be announced on June 4 – it is apparent that Indian democracy is more robust than initially perceived.

While the outcome seems a foregone conclusion – re-election for Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – the polls have yet thrown up a few surprises. There has been speculation that voter turnout is lower than anticipated, which has been attributed to everything from the weather to voter apathy.

The drop has not been significant, but it has been enough to fuel fears within the ruling BJP that it may not secure its targeted 370 seats (400 with coalition partners). It has also prompted BJP candidates (including Modi) to double down on the party’s divisive Hindu nationalist rhetoric.

While these developments are alarming, they also show that Indian democracy remains alive and kicking, such that the BJP does not have complete control over the narrative of Indian politics.

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Despite the government’s ambitions to centralise power, the election has reaffirmed the idea that “all politics is local”, with regional politics and livelihood issues dominating campaigns. That recent state elections have seen fewer recounts or complaints about vote rigging or manipulation also reaffirms that Indian democracy remains intact at a procedural level.

Kharge also said last month that India was in the midst of an “undeclared emergency”, and that the BJP has “captured all the democratic institutions”. But the Supreme Court’s recent decision to grant bail to Modi critic Arvind Kejriwal, leader of the Aam Admi Party, shows that institutional checks and balances persist.

Claims that India’s judiciary has lost its independence have also been challenged by a Supreme Court ruling in mid-February that electoral bonds – mainly used for fundraising by the BJP – were unconstitutional.

Similar claims have been made about India’s media, with concerns about growing self-censorship amid violence against journalists, internet shutdowns and the concentration of media ownership in companies that maintain close relations with the government.

While these concerns are not unwarranted, it is also true that India maintains a vibrant media landscape, which includes vocal criticism of the government on social media and other platforms. This was evident from Modi’s recent interviews with several prominent journalists who challenged the government on everything from its economic achievements to its authoritarian tendencies.

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All of this should be a wake-up call for how the West views India. Historically, the West touted India’s credentials as the world’s largest democracy as justification for deepening engagement with the country (as a bulwark against the rise of China). The preamble to almost every joint statement between India and a Western country points to their common democratic heritage as the basis for deepening cooperation.

However, India rarely employs its democratic credentials as an explicit tool of its foreign policy. India’ s relations with non- or weakly democratic regimes, from Iran and Russia to Myanmar and Bangladesh, has put New Delhi at odds with the West.

The pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction amid concerns over the death of Indian democracy under a third Modi term. But this is an equally false narrative.

India is like other countries with populist leaders, such as the United States under Donald Trump or Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro, where the institutions remain stronger than the individual, as observed during albeit somewhat messy transitions of power in these countries.

Modi’s rise to power and his likely re-election is not a sign of electoral manipulation but a reflection of his popularity, and the lack of a credible and unified opposition capable of challenging the government on some of its key policy failures.

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At the same time, the cult of personality surrounding Modi is the BJP’s Achilles’ heel. There is no clear successor within his party unlike for most of India’s other political parties, which tend to be rooted in dynastic politics. The BJP recently quashed suggestions that the party has a “retire at 75” rule, which would have meant Modi stepping down in 2025.

Still, the party faces latent risks from the absence of clear second-tier leadership with Modi’s level of appeal. This creates the possibility that after Modi, India will return to the politics that existed in the country for over two decades before the BJP assumed power in 2014.

That was a time when the ruling party was more beholden to its partners in shaky coalition governments. While this is also a worry for the BJP in the current elections and may undermine the efficiency of policymaking, it also signals the robustness of India’s democracy.

This is not to deny that there are genuine concerns about the state of Indian democracy as Modi seeks to transform India into a Hindu rashtra (nation), which threatens to erode the country’s secular credentials. There is also a growing tendency to welcome Modi’s strongman leadership as a necessary evil in facilitating India’s economic development, akin to developments in Asian “tiger” economies in previous decades.

However, democracy cannot be easily overturned in a country of India’s size and diversity with a long and indigenous tradition of dialogue, debate and disagreement. India is an imperfect democracy, but it will remain a democracy nonetheless.

Chietigj Bajpaee is a senior fellow for South Asia at Chatham House

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