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Opinion | Why coastguards, not warships, are shaping future of South China Sea
The test is not claimants resolving their disputes but whether they preserve the infrastructure that keeps encounters from becoming a crisis
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When ships from China and the Philippines encounter each other near the Second Thomas Shoal, most incidents are resolved without diplomatic intervention. No shots fired, no ministerial calls, no carrier deployments. Within days, encounters are logged, reviewed and absorbed into routine reporting channels.
That administrative resolution reveals how stability is maintained in the South China Sea. Debate over these waters still defaults to navies, deterrence and great power rivalry. However, most days in Southeast Asia’s contested waters are shaped by different actors: coastguard patrols, incident handling protocols and the bureaucratic infrastructure that determines whether encounters get filed away or escalate.
This is not about denying the relevance of naval power. It is about recognising what governs daily friction management: how vessels meet, how incidents are recorded and which escalation steps are avoided.
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Daily behaviour is shaped by coastguard patrols, real-time incident management, evidence assembly and surveillance confirmation. Through these interactions, claims are reinforced, reputations formed and escalation risks either reduced or compounded.
Water cannon attacks and vessel collisions in October 2025, ramming incidents at the Scarborough Shoal in September and encounters across the Spratly Islands illustrate how incident handling protocols, evidence preservation and communication channels determine whether confrontations are absorbed administratively or escalate politically.
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In practice, this distinction affects who makes the next decision and how quickly. A vessel commander files a report, a naval captain calls the capital. Naval incidents move rapidly up political and military chains where room for de-escalation narrows. Coastguard encounters are handled through reporting, review and follow-up, allowing time for clarification before positions harden.
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