Central Asia’s water insecurity may seem a distant concern. But its rivers underpin Eurasian trade corridors, sustain global food markets and power regional energy systems. As
water stress worsens, this is no longer just an environmental issue but a strategic threat across Eurasia – demanding urgent attention in Beijing, Brussels and beyond.
Central Asia is warming twice as fast as the global average, accelerating glacier retreat in mountain ranges that act as natural reservoirs. As a result, flows in the major transnational rivers are becoming more volatile while droughts grow more frequent. These shifts strain agriculture and hydropower, undermine rural livelihoods and deepen socio-economic vulnerabilities across the region.
For Beijing, these risks are immediate. Western China and Central Asia share key river basins, making water security a cross-border concern. Unpredictable flows strain agriculture and industry in Xinjiang, while water scarcity compounds socio-economic pressures in
sensitive border regions – an issue Beijing monitors closely.
Climate stress in Central Asia also affects the
Belt and Road Initiative. Transport corridors, industrial zones and logistics hubs depend on predictable water and energy supplies. Meanwhile, disruptions to food imports from Kazakhstan and instability in regional energy exchanges affect China’s western development strategy and the long-term viability of its Eurasian corridors.
Europe faces parallel exposure. The European Union is investing heavily in the
Trans-Caspian International Transport Route as an alternative to routes transiting Russia and a part of supply chain diversification. The EU, together with partner institutions, is also accelerating investment in the Global Gateway framework to support connectivity in Central Asia.
But the persistent threat of climate volatility looms large over the corridor’s reliability: water shortages can disrupt industry and agriculture, strain power networks and increase operational risks for transport and logistics, undermining Europe’s goals of resilient connectivity and strategic autonomy.
