Expect William Lai to be more adventurous than his predecessor
- The new Taiwan leader does not hide his separatist tendencies, which necessarily require American military support and undermine security
Taiwan and mainland China can coexist peacefully and prosper together. The island just needs to keep some distance from Washington, in the way most Asean countries have done, and what the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) have been advocating.
But if the inauguration speech of President William Lai Ching-te is any indication, the island under Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule will forge a closer de facto military partnership with the United States. Lai rolled out the red carpet in his inauguration for former Republican congressman Mike Gallagher and ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo, US anti-China hawks. That says it all.
Lai painted himself as being “pragmatic” during his election campaign, but he is an ideologue for independence. If you think his DPP predecessor Tsai Ing-wen was bad, he will be Tsai times 10.
In his speech, he effectively pushed for confrontation with the mainland, which is exactly what Washington wants, by declaring “no delusions” about cross-strait peace. He even referred to the island as a “nation”. This way of self-referencing for the island’s ideologues has become the norm, especially in pro-independence news outlets.
Now in office, Lai is not even hiding his secessionism, which necessarily requires the American militarisation of the island, with all its terrible implications for the Taiwanese, as well as threatening a wider regional conflict. The DPP risks turning the island into an existential military threat to the mainland on behalf of the US. In doing so, it’s painting a big target on itself.
They are exchanging relative autonomy for vassal status under Uncle Sam. In this grand US design of China containment, a cross-strait conflict will only be a piece of the puzzle for Washington, but it will be the “be all and end all” for Chinese people. Of course the Americans are cheering on Taiwan.
“So long as China refuses to renounce the use of force against Taiwan,” Lai said, “all of us in Taiwan ought to understand that even if we accept the entirety of China’s position and give up our sovereignty, China’s ambition to annex Taiwan will not simply disappear.”
Beijing never said it would invade the island. It said it would do everything humanly possible to unify peacefully, but the DPP and its supporters are closing every avenue.
Why should the mainland renounce the use of force when international law clearly makes allowance for every country to use force against secession? It’s as unrealistic as if Beijing were to demand the island to demilitarise and give up its weapons as a precondition for negotiations.
Lai is repeating US propaganda about Taiwan being Ukraine 2.0, all the better to exchange the island’s autonomy and prosperity for wasteful militarisation. Taiwan now spends a record NT$606.8 billion (HK$147 billion) on defence, equivalent to 2.6 per cent of GDP, against China’s 1.7 per cent. How high can the island drive up defence spending before its economy snaps?
The one bright spot after the latest election is an informal alliance of KMT and TPP. Together, they can command a majority in the legislative yuan with their respective 52 and eight seats, against the DPP’s 51 seats. Two independent lawmakers are also ideologically close to them.
That is the underlying reason for the brawl in the legislature last week, something that became rare under Tsai because the DPP had dominated the chamber.
In the new realignment, the KMT and TPP are together pushing through the much-needed legislative reform bills to introduce “contempt of legislature” charges, which require the president to answer lawmakers’ questions and expand their investigative powers.
If passed, officials who deliberately make false statements in the legislature may be indicted and fined.
Of course, the DPP and its supporters didn’t like the draft laws – hence the brawl.
Taiwanese voters, who have long expressed an overwhelming preference for the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, should realise that the DPP and Washington are more brazen than ever in overturning it.
