Opinion | Amid US rivalry, is China’s gamble in the Middle East paying off?

Beijing is projecting itself as an alternative to the US but how that strategy will fare in the long run against America’s political and military power remains uncertain

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman on arrival at Al Yamama Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on December 8, 2022. China-Saudi ties have deepened further since the meeting. Photo: Saudi Press Agency via AP

Published: 4:30pm, 21 Jun 2024Updated: 5:23pm, 21 Jun 2024

China’s engagement in the Middle East has surged over the past decade, particularly following the Arab spring and amid the perceived withdrawal of the United States from the region. Traditionally, Beijing has worked to develop balanced relationships with all sides while avoiding the region’s many conflicts.

As China’s global standing has strengthened, however, it has adopted a more proactive approach, positioning itself as a potential alternative to the US.

At the same time, superpower competition has begun to spill over into the region. As the Biden administration increased pressure on China in the Asia-Pacific, Beijing has responded by becoming more active in the Middle East. This dynamic has been especially evident since the outbreak of the Gaza war last October 7.

The Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013, significantly increased China’s regional involvement, making Beijing the primary foreign investor in the Middle East since 2016. Initially focused on the energy sector, China has expanded its engagement to include infrastructure projects, smart city initiatives, innovation hubs and 5G mobile networks, not only in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) but also into Qatar, Iran and Israel.

Middle East leaders, increasingly disillusioned with US policies – including the 2003 Iraq invasion, Arab spring, withdrawal from Afghanistan, stalled Iran nuclear agreement and Gaza war – have turned to China as a more reliable partner for infrastructure and technology projects, if not for military protection.

For Gulf Cooperation Council countries in particular, the relationship with China is now of strategic importance. This can be seen in China’s trade with the six-member bloc, which surged from US$10 billion in 2000 to US$230 billion in 2021. China’s ability to provide infrastructure, technology and trade without political or human rights demands is particularly attractive.

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