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Josephine Ma
Josephine Ma

My Take | As China’s population shrinks, it’s time to look at healthy ageing

  • The UN has forecast that the population could be half its size by 2100. What matters is the potential change to the demographic structure

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China’s elderly population is already big compared to other greying societies. Photo: Bloomberg
Josephine Ma
A United Nations report estimating that China’s population of 1.4 billion could shrink to half its size by 2100 has fuelled discussion about the potential impact.
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The report projects that China’s population could return to a size comparable to what it was in the late 1950s, as it may lose 786 million people in the next 70 years amid a declining birth rate. There is a 50 per cent chance of that happening, according to the latest edition of the UN’s World Population Prospects released earlier this month.

The projection has again ignited debate about whether China can maintain its global dominance and strong economic growth – the latter enabled by what is described as the country’s “demographic dividend”.

This dividend occurs when the proportion of the working population is high, and coupled with globalisation it has seen China become a global manufacturing powerhouse in the last two decades.

But gauging a country’s economic prowess just by looking at its population size is simplistic, and it may be misleading. In fact there has long been differing views over whether China’s large population has been a blessing or a curse.

For example, the leadership has for many years said that China is still a developing country because of its vast population and a low GDP per capita. They have also stressed that ensuring there is enough food and necessities for such a large population is an uphill task.

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