Opinion | China’s moment to rewire the world is arriving. What will it do?

Earlier this month, Anthropic, the American artificial intelligence company, entered the US-China fight. It barred companies from using its AI services if they were more than 50 per cent owned by Chinese entities. This was a double punch – China’s access to American technology hit another obstacle, and the global business world was prodded again to reject Chinese investment.

Just a few months ago, Anthropic’s move would have knocked the wind out of China. But the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin and military parade in Beijing have given China new momentum, one seemingly unstoppable as geopolitical winds shift eastward.

In Africa, Kenya is de-dollarising, converting some of its debt from US dollars to yuan. In Europe, Slovakia is securing Chinese rare earths despite the European Union’s push to reduce dependence on imports. And in Asia, after almost 20 years of negotiations, the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is reportedly advancing, ready to convert European-facing gas fields into Chinese ones.

Surrounding all this are the “holistic shifts”: the United States giving Beijing a “hall pass” over the war in Ukraine, and a potential China-India reset.

What will Beijing do? The need of the hour is stable trade and development, including for China. Its export growth rate has slowed to a six-month low, even as it redirects trade – including to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where exports last month were up 22.5 per cent year on year, or to Africa, where it has amassed a US$60 billion trade surplus this year. Emerging markets still cannot replace the West’s purchasing power.