Opinion | Can Manila’s South China Sea strategy of defiance and diplomacy hold?
China and the Philippines are both signalling openness to diplomacy alongside continued military flexing, but this may not be sustainable
In the South China Sea, conference rooms and contested shoals operate on parallel tracks. Whether this compartmentalisation can hold or whether the next incident drags everyone into a crisis is fast becoming a regional question, not merely a bilateral one.
Yet events at sea that week told a different story. US-Philippine joint patrols operated near Scarborough Shoal, followed by Chinese patrols. As both capitals seek to shape the narrative, space for quiet de-escalation is shrinking.
In some ways, this two-track dynamic offers Beijing and Manila flexibility. Diplomats point to dialogue as evidence of responsible statecraft. Security establishments show resolve without triggering escalation. Domestic audiences see their government standing firm.