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Opinion
Why China’s tech firms could be in for a rude IPO surprise
Public markets will not be swayed by a single big contract or impressive demonstration and will demand more of tech firms aiming for IPOs
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Jun Yan has spent two decades working at the intersection of policy, capital and industry in China.
A listing path is not a valuation endorsement. China’s artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics companies are about to find out which parts of their private market premiums can survive public market pricing.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has clarified how unprofitable AI large-model companies can apply under the Star Market’s fifth listing standard. The route is meant for companies with strategic technology that might not yet be reaping profits or substantial revenue.
A parallel test is taking shape in robotics. Unitree Robotics has moved further through the Star Market process, giving investors a more concrete test case for humanoid robots. Unlike many early-stage tech companies, Unitree is not only selling a promise. It has reported fast revenue growth and profits, though more recent filings point to pressure on margins.
These two cases are not the same – that is why they matter together. The AI guidance tests whether strategic tech companies can access public capital before reaching conventional financial maturity. Unitree tests whether a high-growth robotics company can carry the expectations built into China’s humanoid robot boom into a stock-market setting.
Both point to a larger shift. Public markets do not merely provide exit routes for early investors. They create categories, comparables and discipline.
That is what private markets should watch. In the recent funding cycle, China’s AI and robotics companies have raised money on the basis of capability: product performance, chip access, policy relevance and founder reputation. Those signals can support a funding round. They do not determine a public market multiple.
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