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China-EU relations
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As I see it
Alex Lo

Europe wants a new Plaza Accord for China – seriously?

Instead of hoping for Beijing to commit economic suicide, it would be more realistic for the EU to strike a mutually acceptable trade deal

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European Council President Antonio Costa (second left) walks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid discussions on the EU budget for 2028, in Brussels, Belgium, on June 19. Photo: dpa
Alex Lo has been an SCMP columnist since 2012, covering major issues affecting Hong Kong and the rest of China.

Leaders of the G7 rich nations might have gone into this month’s summit in France hoping for a united front against China. But, overshadowed by the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine and alienated by a mercurial US President Donald Trump, the lacklustre gathering came up short.

There was no public agreement on how to address the so-called China shock 2.0, the supposed overcapacity issues and currency manipulation that is considered to be the cause of Chinese exports flooding into Europe.

Instead of declaring a joint plan, as the French hosts had initially hoped, milder summit statements called for Group of Seven cooperation to reduce dependence on foreign supply of critical minerals and to support “balanced, durable and resilient growth’’ against “global imbalances”. China was not named, though it was clearly the target.

The European Union (EU) itself is an unenumerated member of the G7. A European consensus seems to have been reached: China is the root of their economic problems. The evidence? China’s trade surplus reached US$1.19 trillion last year. In the first five months of 2026, shipments to Germany increased by 17.3 per cent year on year. Meanwhile, according to Chinese customs data, imports from Germany rose just 1.5 per cent.

So the EU is crying foul and making threats. But if the US failed to reverse China shock 1.0 during Trump’s first term, it seems doubtful a much-weakened EU or even the G7 would fare any better this time.

Speaking after a European Council summit in Brussels last week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he strongly supported a tough EU stance against China. Not content with accusing China of dumping goods on the European market because of overcapacity, he now claims the yuan is undervalued by a whopping 30 per cent. Even the International Monetary Fund estimated an undervaluation of only 15 to 16 per cent.

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