EditorialNational Day break may bring more relaxation than economic recovery

Coinciding with the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the eight-day break has been touted as a golden opportunity for the catering, retail and tourism industries to reap a bigger windfall. But there are also worries that the city’s post-pandemic holiday exodus, which has persisted in recent years, may result in losses rather than gains.

The National Day holiday week is one of the most lucrative periods for businesses. Some 2.4 billion trips are expected during the period, a 3.2 per cent rise from last year. International flight and overseas hotel bookings have also increased, thanks to more visa exemptions for Chinese nationals and the resumption of more long-haul flights.

More mainlanders will, hopefully, make their way to the city. But more may take advantage of the longer holiday to travel further. “Short trippers” may instead opt for Macau, which has topped the China Tourism Academy survey as the most satisfying travel destination.

The Hong Kong authorities are expecting 8.8 million cross-border trips, a 20 per cent rise from last year. About 1.5 million mainland tourists are expected to come, 10 per cent more than last year. Promising as it sounds, the industries must not just sit back and expect a bonanza. As usual, some locals will head north or overseas. If the exodus during the previous holiday seasons is any guide, it is likely that some restaurants and retailers will experience losses or only modest increases in business. Some residents may feel that shopping malls and metro rides are less crowded and that celebration activities have become all the more enjoyable.

It remains to be seen whether there will be more gains than losses for the economy. In any case, it will take more than a seasonal boom to turn the economic tide.