Trump-Xi summit may not yield a deal but is still significant

Beijing has finally confirmed that US President Donald Trump will make a state visit to China for talks with President Xi Jinping from Wednesday to Friday. The bilateral relationship is very important to both countries, and equally so to the rest of the world. At the same time, we should not expect too much of the visit.

Many global issues need the attention of China and the United States, whether the rest of the world wants to see a G2 geopolitical leadership duo. It remains to be seen whether a counterweight to the two superpowers emerges, be it Europe or India.

Another reality is that in the US, final decisions are in Trump’s hands as American politics becomes increasingly fragmented and polarised – much more so than in the era of his predecessor, Joe Biden. Meanwhile, China has a very clear power structure and reporting line. That is why China has expressed faith in head-of-state diplomacy, such as the coming summit, being fit for purpose in a way other meetings wouldn’t be.

Trump’s visit will hopefully be the first of several to help stabilise the bilateral relationship. Ties may at times be contentious, reflecting competition and rivalry. But this kind of meeting can help establish guard rails and mutual understanding.

Both sides understand what the bottom lines are. But because of the war in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues, they are unlikely to reach a breakthrough overnight on sensitive issues like Taiwan or technology controls. After all, China and the US have been engaged in trade and economic warfare for eight years, and Taiwan has always been an issue between the two sides.

While it may be unrealistic to think Trump can come to Beijing and strike a so-called grand bargain, it is important that the first visit of his second term goes well and sets the stage for Xi’s expected visit to the US and, eventually, even a third or fourth meeting between the two. This could make the globally important relationship more manageable.