Opinion | Trump’s pivot puts Pacific Rim at heart of global power shift

While US-China relations are likely to warm in 2026 and US President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy strikes a comparatively softer tone, the long-term trajectory of the two nations’ rivalry remains irreversible. Strategic competition will only intensify, focusing ever more on economic and security issues in the Pacific Rim.

US-China relations in 2026 are expected to be relatively stable. With two summit meetings scheduled – one in Beijing in April and another possible in mid-December at the Group of 20 summit in Florida – and the US midterm elections in November, the volatile Trump administration is likely to avoid risking ties with China to safeguard Republican electoral wins.

Adding to this summit-driven optimism, Washington’s 2025 National Security Strategy adopts a more moderate tone. It recognises China’s evolution from one of the poorest countries to a “near-peer” competitor and reclassifies it from being a strategic competitor to an economic rival, prioritising economic competition over direct geopolitical confrontation.

However, the rhetorical softening does not signal a fundamental shift in US-China strategic competition. Far from smoothing relations, this approach focuses on shoring up America’s economic foundation – rooted in the principle that economic security is fundamental to national security – while bolstering Pacific Rim security architectures. Indeed, it reflects a shift to a “pragmatic containment” strategy.

This explains China’s official indifference to concepts such as the “G2” – which garnered global attention after Trump framed his South Korea summit with President Xi Jinping in those terms – and the proposed “C5”, or “Core Five”, which was reportedly outlined in the National Security Strategy’s longer, unpublished version, and would include the United States, China, Russia, Japan and India.